The new report by the UN Panel of Experts (PoE) is being circulated. The report covers the period between December 2020 and September 2021. I’m sharing some highlights:
PoE to investigate ramifications on peace and security in Somalia, specifically the role of Eritrea-trained Somali recruits, the majority of whom remain in Eritrea, but some of whom have returned to Somalia [news to me that some returned] to provide unspecified security functions
PoE says Al-Shabaab remains the greatest threat to the peace, security and stability of Somalia; generates enough revenue to sustain its insurgency for the foreseeable future. PoE estimates that Al-Shabaab operates around 100 checkpoints throughout the country.
Charcoal exports on hold, but Shabaab is exploiting impact of climate change by providing communities w/ protection from flooding, acting as a service provider to communities that receive little support from Govt; this may lead to new challenges on how to address insecurity, PoE.
PoE says it has identified a 60mm mortar round, w/ characteristics consistent with 60mm M73 HE manufactured in 2016 in Serbia and exported the same year to Saudi Arabia. The same type of mortar round was fired by Shabaab on 17 Feb 2020 im the direction of UN compound in Mogadishu
PoE: An M4 assault rifle has been identified; to the knowledge of the Panel, this represents the first time an M4 rifle (5.56 × 45mm) has been seen in the hands of Al-Shabaab. The Panel also identified military equipment previously delivered to the Federal Government of Somalia.

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More from @HarunMaruf

14 Aug
After 20 years of “tiresome” Afghan war, the US is set to end its mission in a matter of days. But despite the reported 300,000 Afghan army and police trained by the Int’l Community, the Taliban are on the verge of taking over most of the country. What is the lesson for Somalia?
The Africa Union Mission has been in Somalia since March 2007. AMISOM numbers just under 20,000, and is now looking for a way out. AU experts recently proposed a hybrid mission of the AU & UN after 2021, with a mix of police (50%), military personnel (35%) and civilians (15%).
The Somali forces are set to take the lead in security responsibilities after 2021, but are they ready? Security officials say they are, but officials want the AU to align its operations with Somali-led transitional plan including readying mobile forces and not just sit in bases.
Read 5 tweets
3 Aug
Somali Govt leaders have decided to bring Somali soldiers trained in Eritrea home within weeks. A team from Eritrea are currently in Somalia to assess area of deployment along with Somali security experts, according to two govt sources. @i_dossier reports voasomali.com/a/5989032.html
The govt has a tentative plant to have the soldiers operate in Southwest and Jubaland states. Eritrea is equipping them, per sources. Two govt officials said the soldiers who were mainly trained as mobile forces, have received the toughest training of all the Somali soldiers
Regarding the numbers. We have confirmed 3 camps.
Camp 1 = 1,500
Camp 2 = 900
Camp 3 = 2767
Total = 5,167
This is based on interviews with deserters. Is there a 4th or even 5th camp? If yes, then the number of soldiers would be more, closer to 7K, but needs further verification
Read 6 tweets
6 Jul
This week the Somali Govt announced conclusion of the latest military operations against Al-Shabaab in Middle Shabelle. But was the operation planned properly? What was the strategy? Why did it end? @i_dossier talks to the commanders and critics.
voasomali.com/a/5955031.html
The Somali Govt recently concluded a military operation in Middle Shabelle, claimed inflicting heavy loses on Al-Shabaab. The operation claimed the lives of soldiers including rising commander Mohamed Abdiwahab. But the operation ended, troops who were deployed pulled back.
There was displacement too. This drew criticism that the operation was not planned properly. Government troops who participated in the operation faced off in Mogadishu back in April when the army split over the term extension, sources say.
Read 6 tweets
22 Mar
Strange but significant news from Mogadishu as @amisomsomalia is forced to give regional & opposition leaders assurance of security protection ahead of election meeting b/w the leaders on Monday. “AMISOM will guarantee security before, during and after the meeting,” says AU chief
Why is this an issue?
Following the Feb 19 incident when govt forces clashed w the bodyguards of opposition leaders & the subsequent firing on protesters, trust b/w federal & opposition leaders weakened. The govt expressed regret at the incident but it did little to restore trust
This mistrust was more evident when the leaders of two regional states - Puntland and Jubaland arrived in Mogadishu for election talks along with heavily armed guards. For their own safety, these leaders decided to stay within Mogadishu airport which is mainly protected by AMISOM
Read 8 tweets
25 Feb
On 17 Feb 2021 I tweeted about the emergence of self-organised, anti-Al-Shabaab militias known as Ma’awisley who have been sighted in parts of Lower Shabelle region - in the vicinity of Leego, Yaaq Bariweyne, Beled Amiin & in areas around Ballidogle airport. I’ve update on this:
Al-Shabaab has now launched counter-offensive against Ma’awisley and have targeted communities they suspect are supporting them, burning homes and destroying charcoal trucks. Significant number of civilians have fled to Wanlaweyn town from Yaq Bariweyne and surrounding areas.
Why? Al-Shabaab doesn’t want to see another force against their ideology to operate in the area. The militias are well armed; they erect checkpoints to solicit funds to fund their operations. They collect money from trucks carrying commercial goods and charcoal trucks both.
Read 13 tweets
17 Feb
Brief details of my investigation into the troops Eritrea is training for Somalia: The idea that Eritrea trains Somali soldiers was first raised by @M_Farmaajo in his 2nd visit to Asmara, but was discussed in detail during President Isaias Afwerki’s visit to Mogadishu in Dec 2018
Initial plan was to train the soldiers at home; Eritrea sent military experts to assess the situation; they visited Degaanley, Isaley, Jazeera, MoD, they met different officials; eventually they decided training in Somalia could compromise safety of trainers and cadets themselves
NISA was tasked to recruit from throughout the country, in collaboration with the registered elders including the 135 elders. NISA also collaborated with some MPs. The Gen Shirbow camp behind NISA HQs was used as a registration site.
Read 11 tweets

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