Thread by @HarunMaruf

BREAKING: Twist in Somalia election process as President @M_Farmaajo accuses PM @MohamedHRoble of “failing” to lead elections; calls for a consultative meeting to “course-correct” the election and to “agree on a leadership capable of implementing inclusive, transparent election”

In a late night statement, @M_Farmaajo accuses @MohamedHRoble of “deviating” from leading & implementing the election, and undermining committee tasked to manage the election. He also accused the PM of issuing unilateral decisions that could create obstacles to election process.

It was May 1 that @M_Farmaajo handed over the security and management of election process to @MohamedHRoble. In that speech at the Lower House of Parliament, he also asked the House to revert to the Sept. 17 election agreement, hence nullifying the two-year term extension.

The President’s transfer of election leadership to the PM was prompted by a deadly conflict in Mogadishu on April 25 which fragmented the national army. On May 27, the PM reached an election roadmap with regional leaders, followed by the election of Upper House Senators.

But the slow pace of election process and claims of election fraud have been constantly reported. The election result of at least 2 seats were nullified over fraud concern. Meanwhile, opposition presidential candidates called for a halt of the election until process is corrected.

The PM fired 7 members of the election disputes resolution team, admitted election was not taking place according to schedule, and called for a meeting with regional leaders on Dec 27. Today federal election committee members voted to oust election chair accusing him of failure.

ANALYSIS: In a seemingly new political showdown, here are potential scenarios in the next round of battle lines: The PM, opposition candidates & some regional leaders to reject @M_Farmaajo’s statement and accusation against @MohamedHRoble, reaffirm commitment to ongoing process.

.@M_Farmaajo and some regional leaders forge new alliance, agree new election process, hence leading two parallel electoral processes. Another possible scenario: The PM, presidential candidates and some regional leaders amend May 27 election deal in order to fast-track process.

Another possible scenario: @M_Farmaajo & his allies at the Lower House of Parliament come up with a plan that leads to the dismissal of PM, appoint a new PM from opposition in an attempt to form a govt of “national unity” that serves for 2 years until one person one vote is held.

Another possibility, is if @MohamedHRoble refreshes his approach in order to earn the trust of the two sides again; publishes overwhelming evidence of election fraud and gives roadmap on course-correcting it. But will this work at this late hour?

Another scenario: No progress, continued stalemate, division within the federal govt, division within the opposition, complete uncertainty, mistrust, and desperation creates heated political atmosphere, and new division within the army, leading to new round of armed conflict.