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Julian Jessop Profile picture
@julianHjessop
Jun 27, 2019 • 4 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Beware the latest dire warnings about the impact of #Brexit on the #tech sector. Main fear seems to be the impact on skilled #migration from the EU, but this would be entirely in the UK government’s hands to manage. Tech is also one of the most global of industries... (1/4)
The UK’s advantages as a location for #tech investment are also largely #Brexit-proof or might actually be strengthened by leaving (e.g. chance to escape some of the crazier regulations). Loss of EU official funding is a red herring too, since the UK is a net contributor... (2/4)
There is some evidence that #Brexit uncertainty is holding back private #investment in the #tech sector – as it is in the economy as a whole. But the UK still tops the league tables and any pause is likely to be temporary. See this from KPMG... (3/4)
kpmgenterprise.co.uk/perspectives/v…
#ProjectFear headlines have focused on the decline in the number of venture capital deals done in the UK #tech sector. But this is happening elsewhere in Europe too, as the economy slows and confidence falters, and even in France, which some now see as UK's main rival here. (4/4)

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More from @julianHjessop

Julian Jessop Profile picture
Aug 24
IMHO, the UK is in the early stages of the next crisis, but we're not heading to the IMF... 🧵

1⃣ the 1976 bailout was a US$ loan used to pay back other countries who had lent foreign currencies to the UK gov't as it attempted to prop up the pound. That's not the problem now...
2⃣ any IMF bailout would come with such punitive conditions - including big cuts in public spending - that it would be politically unacceptable.

Put another way, if the UK government were willing to take these tough decisions, we wouldn't need the IMF in the first place...
3⃣ the IMF simply doesn't have the resources to bail out an economy as large as the UK.

This is compounded by the fact that many other countries are now in the same boat, including other IMF members who would have to approve the loan.
Read 4 tweets
Julian Jessop Profile picture
Nov 6, 2024
The five stages of grief...

1⃣ Denial Image
2⃣ Anger Image
3⃣ Bargaining Image
Read 5 tweets
Julian Jessop Profile picture
Oct 31, 2024
I’d rather be optimistic, but here are the five main ways in which Rachel Reeves’ first #Budget is likely to unravel… 🧵

1⃣ the adverse reaction in bond markets, pushing up borrowing costs (we're already seeing signs of this, though talk of 'meltdown' is premature)...
2⃣ the adverse impact on household and business sentiment - aka 'animal spirits' - even before the Budget measures take effect

Consumer confidence was already wobbling in anticipation of a tight Budget, but the tax increases were larger and broader than most had expected... Image
3⃣ the wider loss of trust in government

IMHO, the tax increases in the Budget clearly breached the promises made during the election campaign and in Labour's manifesto.

The furore over the taxation of family farms could just be the tip of the iceberg...
Read 5 tweets
Julian Jessop Profile picture
Oct 31, 2024
Five quick points on the adverse market reaction to Rachel Reeves' first #Budget... 🧵

1⃣ it's premature to talk about a 'meltdown', but today's jump in the cost of UK government borrowing is worrying (especially when yields in other advanced economies are flat or down slightly) Image
2⃣ 2-year yields have risen the most, suggesting that the jump is mainly driven by expectations that the short-term boost to growth and #inflation from the Budget (according to the OBR) will prompt the Bank of England to keep official rates higher for longer... Image
3⃣ however, worries about the extra bond issuance are clearly a factor too

The fact that #sterling has also fallen confirms that investor confidence is now more fragile, and that markets think higher rates and a cheaper currency will both be needed to attract foreign buyers...
Read 5 tweets
Julian Jessop Profile picture
Jul 20, 2024
Over the last few days I've read some terrible takes on the 4-5 year jail sentences handed out to five #JustStopOil protestors (aka 'the #WholeTruthFive').

Here's a short 🧵 on why the sentences were justified and where the critics have gone wrong...
First, the facts.

It seems obvious that many of the people questioning the sentences haven't read the judge's explanation 👇

TL;DR the activists were convicted of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance which resulted in major disruption on the M25...

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl…
The jury that convicted the #WholeTruth5 heard ample evidence of the significant harms done to members of the public (just some examples below), and of course it could have been even worse (indeed, this was the stated aim of the conspirators)...
Image
Image
Read 12 tweets
Julian Jessop Profile picture
Jun 23, 2024
By popular demand, here’s a quick thread explaining the OBR’s assumption that #Brexit will reduce UK GDP by 4% over the longer term - and why it shouldn’t be treated as gospel.

First, let’s be clear what the figure actually means… 🧵
The OBR has assumed that the additional frictions to UK-EU trade after #Brexit will damage UK #productivity.

As a result, the *level* of GDP (strictly, GDP per head) will be 4% lower than it would otherwise have been in every year over the longer term...
Note...

i) this does not mean that annual *growth* would be 4% lower every year (that should be obvious!)

ii) this is only about trade, not other factors like immigration or domestic regulations

iii) the 4% is a guess at the long-term impact, not what has already happened
Read 14 tweets

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