Beware the latest dire warnings about the impact of #Brexit on the #tech sector. Main fear seems to be the impact on skilled #migration from the EU, but this would be entirely in the UK government’s hands to manage. Tech is also one of the most global of industries... (1/4)
The UK’s advantages as a location for #tech investment are also largely #Brexit-proof or might actually be strengthened by leaving (e.g. chance to escape some of the crazier regulations). Loss of EU official funding is a red herring too, since the UK is a net contributor... (2/4)
There is some evidence that #Brexit uncertainty is holding back private #investment in the #tech sector – as it is in the economy as a whole. But the UK still tops the league tables and any pause is likely to be temporary. See this from KPMG... (3/4) kpmgenterprise.co.uk/perspectives/v…
#ProjectFear headlines have focused on the decline in the number of venture capital deals done in the UK #tech sector. But this is happening elsewhere in Europe too, as the economy slows and confidence falters, and even in France, which some now see as UK's main rival here. (4/4)
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Over the last few days I've read some terrible takes on the 4-5 year jail sentences handed out to five #JustStopOil protestors (aka 'the #WholeTruthFive').
Here's a short 🧵 on why the sentences were justified and where the critics have gone wrong...
First, the facts.
It seems obvious that many of the people questioning the sentences haven't read the judge's explanation 👇
TL;DR the activists were convicted of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance which resulted in major disruption on the M25...
The jury that convicted the #WholeTruth5 heard ample evidence of the significant harms done to members of the public (just some examples below), and of course it could have been even worse (indeed, this was the stated aim of the conspirators)...
By popular demand, here’s a quick thread explaining the OBR’s assumption that #Brexit will reduce UK GDP by 4% over the longer term - and why it shouldn’t be treated as gospel.
First, let’s be clear what the figure actually means… 🧵
The OBR has assumed that the additional frictions to UK-EU trade after #Brexit will damage UK #productivity.
As a result, the *level* of GDP (strictly, GDP per head) will be 4% lower than it would otherwise have been in every year over the longer term...
Note...
i) this does not mean that annual *growth* would be 4% lower every year (that should be obvious!)
ii) this is only about trade, not other factors like immigration or domestic regulations
iii) the 4% is a guess at the long-term impact, not what has already happened
I was going to ignore this obviously misleading post, but it is now being widely retweeted by the the usual suspects.
It is also a super example of #FBPE #Brexit 'confirmation bias'... 🙄 🧵 (1/7)
#badbrexittakes #tourism
Note first that the '23%' figure is unsourced ⚠️
It might be a misreading of data from the Association of Leading Visitor Attractions (ALVA), which reported that total visitor numbers to their sites were still 23% lower in 2022 than in 2019... (2/7)
This is partly about being in the right sectors at the time.
UK #manufacturing has a higher weight on pharma and #food, lower on #autos, capital and luxury goods, so was relatively well-positioned during #Covid, the supply chain and energy crises, and #China's slowdown... (2/4)
#Brexit has had positive impacts here too.
Some may only be temporary: the fall in #sterling improved the competitiveness of UK production, with a further boost from stockpiling ahead of Brexit itself (the UK didn't actually leave the SM and CU until the end of 2020)... (3/4)
📢 The Treasury/Tories should be making more of this... 👇
The proportion of low-paid employee jobs in the UK (based on hourly pay) fell to 8.9% in 2023 (from 10.7% in 2022), the lowest since this series began in 1997...
FYI, Richard Hughes (Chair of the #OBR) did *not* say yesterday that #Brexit has (already) shrunk the UK economy by 4%.
Instead, he repeated the OBR’s estimate that it will reduce long-run productivity by 4%, which is still just an *assumption*.
This needs some explaining… 🧵
The 4% focuses on the negative impact of a fall in trade, assuming both exports and imports are 15% lower in the long run (c.15 years) than if the UK had remained in the EU.
The evidence to date has not been enough to change the OBR’s mind, but it is far too soon to be sure…
Indeed, much of this evidence is hard to square with the assumption of a large and permanent #Brexit hit: goods trade with the EU and the rest of the world have performed similarly, services have held up well, and overall trade intensity now appears to be recovering...