NEW from @TheGoodISIS: Conversion of Fordow: Another Unfulfilled Hope of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Fordow now includes semi-indigenous nuclear equipment production

Read here: isis-online.org/isis-reports/d…
Our latest report contains four key findings:

1) The Fordow uranium enrichment facility has never been repurposed, as promised in the JCPOA. Everything required to enrich uranium to weapons grade could be quickly reconstituted in the underground portion of the facility.
2) Fordow is potentially part of Iran’s current threats to progressively go to higher enrichment levels and increase its stocks of enriched uranium, and if conducted there, Fordow’s underground tunnel complex is fortified to withstand aerial bombardment.
3) Fordow now includes semi-indigenous nuclear equipment production and potentially illicit procurement at the newly expanded support area, the former which was not likely intended by the JCPOA, and the latter which is prohibited.
4) The Nuclear Archive seized by Israel shows that Fordow’s original, intended purpose dating back to at least 2002 was to produce weapon-grade enriched uranium for 1-2 nuclear weapons per year. There is no doubt it could be reconstituted to fulfill that purpose.
Key recommendations:

- Suppliers need to be on guard against Iran violating sanctions and strategic trade controls in its efforts to obtain relevant subcomponents for the new nuclear equipment production center from abroad.
- JCPOA Joint Commission via UN Secretariat should investigate whether Iran is illicitly procuring equipment for its new semi-indigenous nuclear equipment production line at Fordow. Iran’s illicit procurement for its centrifuge program needs to be strenuously opposed & thwarted.
- The Trump administration should no longer grant a waiver for stable isotope separation work at the Fordow facility given Iran’s recent threats to increase enrichment.
- A waiver for work at Fordow legitimizes a facility that should not operate, given its connections to Iran’s former nuclear weapons program. Instead, a priority should be investigating its origins.
- The United States can reinstate the waiver if the stable isotope production work is moved to the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, where it should have been in the first place.
- Since Fordow was once part of an active nuclear weapons program and was a facility that Iran took special precautions to hide, its fate under any improved nuclear deal is critical.
- Fordow should be decommissioned and eliminated in any future deal. That the tunnel complex continues to function in a standby mode reduces the value of the JCPOA.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Inst for Science

Inst for Science Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheGoodISIS

Dec 2, 2021
A long thread covering the highlights of our new Comprehensive Survey of Iran's Advanced Centrifuges:
In the last 2 yrs, Iran has accelerated its deployment of advanced centrifuges, following a lull of 3 yrs created by the JCPOA. Iran has demonstrated its commitment to replace the IR-1 centrifuge with advanced centrifuges, which can produce considerably more enriched uranium. 1/
This graph shows the number of advanced centrifuges deployed from 2011 to today, w/ a projection for early to mid-2022 based on Iran’s announced plans. The total number of installed advanced centrifuges has been increasing rapidly as Iran continues to violate the JCPOA. 2/
Read 59 tweets
Jun 17, 2021
As of about June 14, Iran had reportedly produced 6.5 kg 60% enriched (hexafluoride mass) or 4.4 kg uranium mass only. reuters.com/world/middle-e… 1/
Iran’s IR-6 production-scale cascade has produced 60% enriched uranium at an average daily rate of 0.126 kg/day since May 22, using less than 5% LEU as feed, skipping the intermediate step of producing 20% material. 2/
Of course, the operation of the IR-6 cascade and the production of 60% is banned by the JCPOA. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 14, 2021
NEW: The International Inspectors Hold the Key to Truly Bringing Iran into Compliance with the Nuclear Deal’s Key Peaceful Pledge isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… 1/
A major goal of the Biden Administration is to sculpt a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) where Iran comes into full compliance with the deal in exchange for lifting all U.S. nuclear sanctions. 2/
Missing in the discussion so far is Iran’s lack of compliance with its fundamental commitment in the JCPOA, namely “under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.” 3/
Read 18 tweets
Feb 25, 2021
NEW: Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… with @StrickerNonpro 1/
Highlights:
- Iran started to produce near 20 percent enriched uranium on January 4, 2021, in 1044 IR-1 centrifuges located at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). 2/
- Iran produced 3.6 grams of uranium metal from natural uranium tetrafluoride (UF4) at the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) at Esfahan, testing the process in preparation for a scaled up enriched uranium metal production line at the FPFP. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jan 11, 2021
NEW Institute satellite imagery analysis: Update on Natanz: Construction Progresses Towards Large-scale Tunnel Complex isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… 1/
Since our October 30, 2020, report on the construction of a new centrifuge assembly facility in the mountains near the Natanz enrichment plant, construction has progressed and tunnel entrance locations can now be identified with certainty. 2/
Most importantly, newly available high resolution satellite imagery confirms that construction is progressing rapidly at the largest mountain in the area, the most likely future location for the new underground assembly facility. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Jan 4, 2021
A few tweets in response to breakout questions now that Iran is enriching uranium to near 20 %. (Side note: The law does not require the production of 120 kg within two months, it requires an annual production of 120 kg.) 1/
We do not know how many centrifuges at Fordow are currently dedicated to 20 % enrichment, although reports are that its approximately 1000 IR-1 centrifuges in six cascades connected as tandem cascades will be used, at least initially. 2/
The law includes a requirement to install one cascade of IR-6 centrifuges, which is reportedly slated for Fordow, followed by the installation of a total of 1000 IR-6's over a year.  3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(