NEW: The International Inspectors Hold the Key to Truly Bringing Iran into Compliance with the Nuclear Deal’s Key Peaceful Pledge isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… 1/
A major goal of the Biden Administration is to sculpt a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) where Iran comes into full compliance with the deal in exchange for lifting all U.S. nuclear sanctions. 2/
Missing in the discussion so far is Iran’s lack of compliance with its fundamental commitment in the JCPOA, namely “under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.” 3/
Director General Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a scathing report in late May on Iran’s lack of cooperation in explaining nuclear materials at four undeclared sites linked to a previous nuclear weapons effort, stating.. 4/
Iran’s action “seriously affects the ability of the Agency to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.” 5/
If that statement were not enough to show non-compliance, the discovery of a secret Iranian archive of nuclear weapons documents in 2018 is a further violation of Iran’s pledge under the JCPOA that it would not seek nuclear weapons in any way. 6/
(For more on archive: amazon.com/Irans-Perilous… ) 7/
The secret possession of this curated archive also exposes a violation of Iran’s binding nuclear nonproliferation commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 8/
It is the IAEA’s analysis of this very archive, under authorities granted under the NPT, that led it to its current confrontation with Iran. 9/
While IAEA findings & the archive show Iran is not in compliance with this key JCPOA pledge, Iran so far shows no intention of changing that, exploiting the seeming inattention to this important matter in the JCPOA negotiations, even undertaking a campaign to undermine IAEA. 10/
Instead of answering the IAEA’s questions and concerns, Iran has stonewalled for months, sometimes trying to conflate the issue with Iran’s suspension of a supplementary safeguards agreement called the Additional Protocol and several JCPOA monitoring arrangements, .. 11/
.. important considerations tied to the re-establishment of the JCPOA, but independent of the more critical question of whether Iran has fully and completely declared its nuclear program. 12/
Iran has tried to make a show of meeting with the IAEA, while providing no substantive or credible response to the IAEA’s concerns about undeclared nuclear material, equipment, or activities. Grossi has said enough. In a recent media interview, “They have to answer.” 13/
As the confrontation became more overt, Iran’s representative to the IAEA in Vienna tweeted that the IAEA’s “approach could turn into an obstacle for future good-will interactions between the two sides.” As the IAEA raises the alarm, Iran’s response is to threaten. 14/
Alone, the IAEA is unlikely to prevail because of division in its Board of Governors between Western powers and Russia, which acts as Iran’s protector. 15/
Not surprisingly, the most recent IAEA Board of Governors meeting failed to pass a resolution condemning Iran and even was having trouble passing a consensus statement on the situation. 16/
But the JCPOA negotiations under U.S. leadership provide a productive way forward that offer far more likely prospects of success. 17/
Read full piece here: isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… 18/18

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More from @TheGoodISIS

17 Jun
As of about June 14, Iran had reportedly produced 6.5 kg 60% enriched (hexafluoride mass) or 4.4 kg uranium mass only. reuters.com/world/middle-e… 1/
Iran’s IR-6 production-scale cascade has produced 60% enriched uranium at an average daily rate of 0.126 kg/day since May 22, using less than 5% LEU as feed, skipping the intermediate step of producing 20% material. 2/
Of course, the operation of the IR-6 cascade and the production of 60% is banned by the JCPOA. 3/
Read 9 tweets
25 Feb
NEW: Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… with @StrickerNonpro 1/
Highlights:
- Iran started to produce near 20 percent enriched uranium on January 4, 2021, in 1044 IR-1 centrifuges located at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). 2/
- Iran produced 3.6 grams of uranium metal from natural uranium tetrafluoride (UF4) at the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) at Esfahan, testing the process in preparation for a scaled up enriched uranium metal production line at the FPFP. 3/
Read 12 tweets
11 Jan
NEW Institute satellite imagery analysis: Update on Natanz: Construction Progresses Towards Large-scale Tunnel Complex isis-online.org/isis-reports/d… 1/
Since our October 30, 2020, report on the construction of a new centrifuge assembly facility in the mountains near the Natanz enrichment plant, construction has progressed and tunnel entrance locations can now be identified with certainty. 2/
Most importantly, newly available high resolution satellite imagery confirms that construction is progressing rapidly at the largest mountain in the area, the most likely future location for the new underground assembly facility. 3/
Read 15 tweets
4 Jan
A few tweets in response to breakout questions now that Iran is enriching uranium to near 20 %. (Side note: The law does not require the production of 120 kg within two months, it requires an annual production of 120 kg.) 1/
We do not know how many centrifuges at Fordow are currently dedicated to 20 % enrichment, although reports are that its approximately 1000 IR-1 centrifuges in six cascades connected as tandem cascades will be used, at least initially. 2/
The law includes a requirement to install one cascade of IR-6 centrifuges, which is reportedly slated for Fordow, followed by the installation of a total of 1000 IR-6's over a year.  3/
Read 7 tweets
7 Aug 20
IMPORTANT UPDATE: 1. As we are looking further into the reporting of a possible yellowcake production facility near Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, we keep in mind lessons were learned from Syria, both Al Kibar and Marj as Sultan.
2. The former, a nuclear reactor in a nondescript box, with minimum visible security barriers; the latter, a uranium conversion facility with no outward signatures.
3. Two days ago, we identified a suspect site south of Al Ula as a follow-up to a WSJ report. This morning, we discovered an identical site, constructed about the same time, that appears to be associated with bulk waste disposal.
Read 6 tweets
31 Jul 20
1. US media should not jump on the recent, false claims by Iranian news agencies on Iran's Nour-1 satellite imaging capabilities. The images circulating in Iranian media provide no basis to claim that Nour-1 has the capability to take high resolution electro-optical spy images.
2. The electro-optical images as published by Tasnim News and others were not taken by the Nour-1 satellite, but are commercially available satellite images as shown in our own analysis and others, @AuroraIntel, @inbarspace.
2 (cont'd) In fact, at least some of the electro-optical images claimed to be Nour-1 satellite imagery is datable to PRIOR the Nour-1 launch of 22 April 2020.
Read 8 tweets

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