There was quite some critique my latest #BrexitDiagram in that it does not feature option that Vote of No Confidence (VONC) fails, no alternative government can be formed, and Johnson just runs down the clock...
... meaning No Deal happens by default before a GE happens
This, I think, is because we have been thinking about these problems in procedural and legal terms, not in political terms.
If the schedule were as follows:
- VONC passes on Tue 3 Sept
- 14 days expire Tue 17 Sept
- 🇬🇧 crashes out of 🇪🇺 31 Oct
- GE on 31 Oct or 7 Nov
how would it play out?
Something like this I reckon
Even Johnson would not survive that.
Even in 🇬🇧's weird political times that would be bonkers.
Even the tabloids wouldn't stomach that.
Not let the Commons pass a law to extend, and let UK crash out during an election?
When the UK Govt's own Yellowhammer plan predicts chaos?
So all of these worries that a VONC should not be attempted until an alternative is clear are a *bluff*
Even *if* no alternative is available, and a General Election would happen ASAP, there is no way MPs - even Tory ones! - would allow a crash out in the mid-campaign
Remember that blame shifting is the name of the game here, but were Johnson to just run down the clock to No Deal there is no way the blame would not stick to him - he could not shift that blame away
Also remember that while the Brexit Party is snapping at the Tories on one side, so the Lib Dems are in second spot in a slew of Tory constituencies on the other. Those seats are as good as lost if No Deal happened during an election campaign
I hence see it as *politically* impossible that the UK slips to No Deal *after* a General Election has been called or that one takes place is already inevitable
/ends
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This morning I’m one of the first new regional trains Maubeuge 🇫🇷 - Charleroi Central 🇧🇪 #CrossBorderRail
It was a bit of a #fail at the station. I needed a ticket to Erquelinnes, the first station in Belgium. But prior to today trains from Maubeuge didn’t stop there!
Ticket machine ⛔️
Ask at the ticket office. “Le train ne s’arrête pas à Erquelinnes!” I politely told the SNCF employee that yes, it did stop at Erquelinnes. I explained the situation to the SNCB train manager and he laughed, confirmed it did stop there, and I bought the ticket online!
Delays in my favour. Maybe? S-Bahn to FFM Flughafen. Get a late running ICE to Köln Messe/Deutz there. Then try to blag my way onto a Thalys Köln Hbf to Bruxelles? It’s a long shot but it might work…
ICE 612 Frankfurt Flughafen to Köln Messe/Deutz.
This is why accurate live running data in apps matters. Were this not running 10 min late I’d not have caught it… but live data allowed me to plan a connection that’d otherwise not work
Already on the 2nd train of the day: TGV Montbard - Paris. All being well I’ll be in Denmark tonight… but that feels a long way off just now! #EGPCongress#crossborderrail
Across Paris RER Gare de Lyon to Gare du Nord, walk to Gare de l’Est (faster than changing into a Métro to Est) and it’s onto the TGV to Mannheim. So far so good, but I banked on this bit working 🙂 #EGPCongress#CrossBorderRail
Franco-German train service. Very French prices! And no, it’s too early (and expensive) for #beerontrains 😉
Jeez. It could take until 2025 until TGVs are approved for the line.
And the whole effing point of Stuttgart21 - of which this line is a part - was to create a Paris-München high speed corridor!
Really, how can everyone mess up *so badly*?
And to those going “yeah but there are few TGVs anyway” true, but so it goes on and on. International services are the lowest priority - even when *they were the stated rationale for building the line*