John Reade Profile picture
Aug 27, 2019 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
#Gold is just above $1530/oz in Tuesday morning trading, slightly higher than the US close on Monday and today’s Asian range.

With London out for a (sunny) bank holiday, I missed the extraordinary Asian range on Monday.
I’m not sure what the trigger was, although I suspect concern about the skirmishes in the looming trade war were to blame.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange was one venue where the move in #gold played out, with heavy volume seen in the T+D contract, taking August to a record.
ETFs have continued to build tonnage over the past few days and based on our proprietary database have added just shy of 100t of #gold this month, with US-listed ETFs the heaviest buyers.
Comex trading speculators added to net-long #gold positions in the week to last Tuesday and now hold record net long positions according to my calculations...
...but as I explained last week I’m less concerned about this than I would have been 5 years ago: the move by many from OTC to exchange for #gold exposure MAY have made this less threatening than it seems.
With Real US 10-year yields in negative territory, although less negative than seen in early-Monday lows, its clear that macro factors are driving gold for now and that will likely make for a choppy outlook.

Look out for more insights on the #goldhub #blog.

Best of luck!
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More from @JReade_WGC

Sep 13, 2023
Something is up with #gold in China.

This chart shows the international gold price denominated in CNY compared to the domestic price of the 9999 contract on the Shanghai gold exchange.

This divergence is unusual. Image
Gold trading on the Shanghai #Gold Exchange has moved to a large premium to the international gold price. We've seen premiums before, but the current percentage premium is unprecedented. Image
Trading volumes of the SGE 9999 #gold contract are nothing out of the ordinary, so at first glance there is nothing to see here... Image
Read 7 tweets
May 19, 2023
How to interpret this? Think that it's very much a case of perspective.

Yes, the Central Bank of Turkey is selling #gold, which is counter to the theme of unprecedented central bank buying.

But...
Putting this another way, if all the sales from the CBT have been to fulfill demand for gold domestically, then retail investment demand for #gold has exploded in Turkey.

Here is quarterly #gold bar and coin demand from our #GDT data series. Image
Q1-2023 saw strong demand of about 50t...

The implication is that in April alone 80t of #gold was bought in Turkey.

Turkish investors have turned to #gold to protect then from high inflation and the prospect of currency depreciation.
Read 4 tweets
May 19, 2023
#Gold has recovered a litle of thegrounds lost over the past few days and is trading around $1963/oz on Friday just after noon in Europe. Image
The dollar has slipped a little overnight, which has taken the pressure of #gold for the near term. Image
There are more fundamental (or sentimental) reasons why gold has corrected.

There hasn't been a bank failure for a few weeks.

The appearance of progress on the debt ceiling talks in the US.

A slightly more hawkish Fed. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 11, 2023
We published a new primer on #gold last week at the same time as #golddemandtrends

"Gold Market Size and Structure"

gold.org/goldhub/resear… Image
I'll tweet out some of the highlights from the report for those too lazy to download it.

Above: total stock of #gold above ground is about 209,000t.

Below, the value of this stock. Image
Note that there are substantial quantities of OTC #gold derivative positions that are not included in this total as this information is not readily or reliably available.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 16, 2022
Another question, this time from people who have followed / traded gold for some years:

"Why isn't gold lower, considering the strength in the dollar and moves in real rates?"
A version of this chart even made it into the FT recently, with the "TIPS implied gold price" from Macquarie.

(Full article here, probably paywalled).

ft.com/content/21d20c…
We've (obviously) noticed the divergence between #gold and the TIPS yield as its been going on for a while.
I beleive that this relationship, which has worked very well since the run-up to the GFC may have fundamentally changed...
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11, 2022
Spot #gold is trading aroundv$1827/oz with a $0.30/oz bid-ask spread on Friday morning in London.

Although it bounced after stronger US inflation data, it couldn't hold those gains as yields firmed late in the day.

But lets look at a slightly longer term perspective...
Since the start of the year, #gold is essentially flat...
...yet 10-year treasury yields are about 65bp higher (less negative)
Read 12 tweets

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