Running [THREAD] of business frameworks w/ thoughts
#1-5: industries
#6-12: company strategy
#13-15: competitive advantages
Feel free to add any that I missed!
Thanks 😁
1/ The Classic Porter's 5 Forces
- All about numbers. If you have a lot of customers, you can leverage that against a fragmented supplier base.
- If you have small customer base w/ few suppliers, it's hard to have leverage.
- Same dynamic with # of companies competing w/ you
2/ Going off of that a little, we have @benthompson's Aggregation Theory.
3 parts to value chains: supplier, distributor, consumer.
If you can monopolize 1 of these or integrate 2, then you can create immense value.
3/ Disruption Theory from Christensen
Disruptive companies come in from the bottom of a market so incumbents rationally don't move down-market.
2 types: low-end or new market disruption
Low-end: mini steel mills
New market: Netflix
4/ Low-End Disruption
My own theory for why low-end disruption usually takes place:
business model shifts
Retailers, airlines, etc. Start with a fresh business model so they can structurally undercut incumbents.
5/ New Market Disruption
My own theory for why new-market disruption usually takes place: platform shifts
New platforms enable companies to focus on specific vectors that create new markets. Then, as tech improves, the disruptor utilizes the new platform to move upmarket.
6/ Business Model Canvas
I interviewed @fourweekmba today and we talked about this.
I can understand why bears think Elon is delusional. But the execution is unbelievably impressive. That's his MO -- set impossible expectations and when they fail, they will be much farther along than if he hadn't set those goals.
⬇️
1/
"Lastly, thanks to $5.5 billion of GAAP net income in 2021, our accumulated profitability since the inception of the Company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the Company."
"Real company" at $1 trillion 😅
2/
"So, it's -- the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving by a software update, I think, might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history."
Opendoor is intriguing to me now that Zillow is out of the picture.
Here are some bear theses I see and some potential rebuttals...
#1: Housing will crash
#2: Unsustainable business model
#3: Capital intensive
#4: iBuying is unsustainable
#5: Low gross margins
2/
#1: Housing market will crash
Even in 2008, the biggest single-month decline was 2.5%. Opendoor holds houses for about 90 days and about half of that is in contract with a buyer.
The actual exposure/duration is quite short and Opendoor has a strong pulse on the market.
3/
Further, the core purpose of Opendoor is to increase the liquidity of housing. It's almost like a market maker.
In crisis, the bid-ask spreads are typically wider, leading to higher margins for the market maker. Opendoor could actually have better margins in a panic.
"To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.”
- George Soros
On defaults ⬇️
1/ It's important to think about our "defaults"
Do we approach every decision with the default setting that we're always right?
Or that we could be wrong?
2/ A lot of investors put their identity in the fact that they are great decision-makers.
After all, that's what this game is all about!
But what happens when you're completely sure you're right and the evidence begins to go against you?