New #COP25 text on Article 6 (well, as of ~2 hrs ago). Finally, no options or brackets. In general, looks pretty good — although seems unlikely to be agreed. Details follow:
6.2: Robust accounting, including for emissions reductions both inside and outside NDC, as well as for other int’l uses (i.e., CORSIA). Strong reporting requirements. No share of proceeds — but that was never in 6.2 to begin with. Overall mitigation could be met with strong caps.
6.4: Countries punted key issues to COP26. On accounting for outside NDCs, there’s an “opt out” period—but date is TBD. On carryover of CDM units, the vintage year is also TBD. Absent decisions there’d be no opt out period or CDM, making this more robust than it first appears.
Overall, not perfect but surprisingly good. My earlier fears of pressuring the EU & al didn’t materialize—to the contrary this places the onus squarely on Brazil. The bottom line is: Do you secure a very good 6.2 for a 6.4 that is uncertain but has a built-in insurance policy?
Sadly this is probably all moot as Brazil and India among others reportedly unlikely to accept it.
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