A few thoughts on Boris and Brexit, and where we might be heading in terms of the future relationship 1/n
On the one hand there are several factors that suggest a Harder or even a No Deal Brexit 2/n
He has promised to get a deal done by Dec 2020, which is almost impossible, and even if there is an extension until Dec 2022, that could be too tight, and there is no possible extension after that 3/n
The influence of Cummings and other hard Brexiteers will make it difficult for Boris to compromise 4/n
While, the EU will play hardball, eg. insisting on “dynamic realignment”, which will be very hard for Boris to accept 5/n
And, with a big majority in the Commons, he can take a hard/no deal Brexit now, knowing that he had 5 years to repair the damage 6/n
On the other hand, that big majority gives him some freedom to ignore the ERG and go for a “softer” Brexit if he wants 7/n
And if he is serious about delivering for those new Conservative constituencies in the Midlands and North, he needs to deliver a Brexit which minimises the damage on manufacturing, the agrofoods industry, and public services 8/n
And the only way to do that is to move quickly to a comprehensive FTA++, which the EU would only agree to if the UK accepts regulatory alignment 9/n
So, if he wants to “Get Brexit Done” by Dec 2020, he could just accept an EU FTA+alignment deal, as he had a large enough majority in the Commons to get it through 10/n
My worry, though, is that both sides will overplay their hands and we will end up with No Deal exit at the end of Dec 2022 11/n
In the meantime, I guess we all want to ask: “will the real Boris stand up please”, so we know where we are heading! 12/12
One final thought: the Conservative manifesto promises to maintain “high social and environment standards”; is that a route into regulatory alignment with the EU?
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