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Simon Hix

@simonjhix

30 Jan

A few thoughts about Ursula vdL, the crisis the EU Commission is facing, and the Spitzenkandidat process ... bear with me 1/n

When a chief executive messes up badly in a democratic system, there is usually a debate about whether/how to replace them (well, except in the UK these days!) 2/n

In a parliamentary system, either the party considers replacing them, or there is a push for a no-confidence vote in the parliament 3/n

Read 11 tweets

Simon Hix

@simonjhix

16 Dec 19

A few thoughts on Boris and Brexit, and where we might be heading in terms of the future relationship 1/n

On the one hand there are several factors that suggest a Harder or even a No Deal Brexit 2/n

He has promised to get a deal done by Dec 2020, which is almost impossible, and even if there is an extension until Dec 2022, that could be too tight, and there is no possible extension after that 3/n

Read 13 tweets

Simon Hix

@simonjhix

31 May 19

@sarahobolt

I've been updating some figures on the composition of the EP over time after the #EP2019 results
(@sarahobolt @bjornhoyland @ggbenedetto @CatherineDVries @GoodwinMJ @tabouchadi @sd270 @markhleonard @kevcunningham @mvanhulten @dorufrantescu). Here's the first one

Here are the peaks in size of the groups:
S&D 38.2% in May94
EPP 37.4% in May04
ALDE 14.8% in Jul19
EAPN 10.5% in Jul19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
ECR 10.0% in Ma19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
G/EFA 9.7% in Jul19
GUE 6.9% in Jul14
EFDD 5.5% in May19

And here's a figure showing the fragmentation of the party system in the EP. The numbers above the line are the "Effective Number of Parties" (ENP) at the start of an EP, and the numbers below are the ENP at the end of an EP.

6.5 "effective" parties in the EP is a new high.

Read 4 tweets

Simon Hix

@simonjhix

26 May 19

@kevcunningham

Ready for the #EP2019 results tonight, here's a summary of our forecast (w/ @kevcunningham & Michael Marsh) compared to the @EuropeElects and @POLITICOEurope forecasts (@sarahobolt @AgataGostynska @LuukvMiddelaar)

Just noticed a slight error. Sorry! Here are the correct figures

And here's where you can find more details: ecfr.eu/page/-/EUROPEA…

Read 4 tweets

Simon Hix

@simonjhix

29 Jan 19

Quick take after tonight's votes:

After the rejection of the Cooper and Reeves amendments, and the acceptance of the Brady amendment, it looks like we're down to 2 options: May's Deal vs. No Deal, as delay of Brexit has been taken off the table.
1/

But, I think it is unlikely the EU27 will budge on the backstop, as Tusk and others have stated, which will mean the ERG and other Tory Brexiteers will prefer No Deal to May's Deal
2/

In which case, we will be heading for a No Deal Brexit unless Labour are willing to support May's Deal
3/

Read 5 tweets

Simon Hix

@simonjhix

21 Nov 18

THREAD: If (when?) Brexit has had a devastating effect on the UK’s economy and society, this act of self-harm can be blamed on a litany of failures by our political class and institutions. In reverse order: 1/

Failures by May, Davis and Johnson and co. to recognise their relative bargaining weakness, the incompatibility of their ‘red lines’, or to make any attempt to build a broad consensus in the House of Commons 2/

Failures by Cameron to negotiate a good deal in 2016, to understand Merkel, to try to use the Euro crisis for venal ends (the pretend “veto”), to engage with the Spitzenkandidat process, and the decision to pull the Tories out of the EPP 3/

Read 10 tweets

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