Just reading through the chapter on "Europe and the World" in the new German government coalition agreement. Hugely ambitious and potentially transformative for Europe. Here are a few highlights 1/n
Emphasis throughout on a more democratic EU, with greater decision capacity, and more sovereignty in the world: "A democratically stronger, more capable and strategically sovereign EU is the basis for peace, prosperity and freedom". 2/n
Wants a "constitutional convention" to "the further development of a federal European state", with a stronger European Parliament (with a right of initiative), and a uniform EP election law, with transnational lists and "lead candidates". 3/n
Wants the EU Council to be "more transparent", with Commission proposals publicly debated in a set time limit, and a further extension of QMV 4/n
Wants more EU "strategic sovereignty", with European independence in energy supply, health, raw materials, digital technology, and protection of European companies against "extraterritorial sanctions" 5/n
On the rule of law (vis. Poland and Hungary), the agreement calls on the Commission and the Council to be more robust in the application of the provisions of the treaty, and supports using fiscal threats to enforce judicial independence 6/n
Less clear on EMU and fiscal policy: wants to strengthen fiscal rules, encourage climate-friendly investment, allow for more EU budget flexibility, but (with a nod to FDP), the agreement also talks about fiscal discipline and maintaining low inflation 7/n
On Social Europe, wants to re-launch "co-determination" at the European level, and also use EU policies to reduce wage inequality between women and men (not sure how, though) 7/n
On Foreign and Security Policy, the Germany government wants the EU to be more sovereign and more effective, e.g. using majority voting in the Council, strengthening and reforming the European External Action Service, increased cooperation between national militaries etc. 8/n
And a load of other details. Too much to put on Twitter. It's a hugely ambitious and detailed programme. If this new government achieves even half of its goals, the EU will be very different 5 years from now. 9/9

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More from @simonjhix

18 May
On the debate about class in Red Wall seats, the BES data suggest that income was MORE steeply related to voting Con in 2019 in Red Wall seats than anywhere else (cf. @PME_Politics @chrishanretty @p_surridge @drjennings @hopkin) 1/3
This suggests that Labour mainly lost wealthier voters in these areas, who used to vote Lab and now vote Con (nb. researchers on US elections would not surprised by this) 2/3
Nb. Wasn't sure what to count as "Red Wall", so took the 41 seats listed in this blog: brightoncafe.com/2020/05/defini…. Happy to use a different list 3/3
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
A few thoughts about Ursula vdL, the crisis the EU Commission is facing, and the Spitzenkandidat process ... bear with me 1/n
When a chief executive messes up badly in a democratic system, there is usually a debate about whether/how to replace them (well, except in the UK these days!) 2/n
In a parliamentary system, either the party considers replacing them, or there is a push for a no-confidence vote in the parliament 3/n
Read 11 tweets
16 Dec 19
A few thoughts on Boris and Brexit, and where we might be heading in terms of the future relationship 1/n
On the one hand there are several factors that suggest a Harder or even a No Deal Brexit 2/n
He has promised to get a deal done by Dec 2020, which is almost impossible, and even if there is an extension until Dec 2022, that could be too tight, and there is no possible extension after that 3/n
Read 13 tweets
31 May 19
I've been updating some figures on the composition of the EP over time after the #EP2019 results
(@sarahobolt @bjornhoyland @ggbenedetto @CatherineDVries @GoodwinMJ @tabouchadi @sd270 @markhleonard @kevcunningham @mvanhulten @dorufrantescu). Here's the first one
Here are the peaks in size of the groups:
S&D 38.2% in May94
EPP 37.4% in May04
ALDE 14.8% in Jul19
EAPN 10.5% in Jul19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
ECR 10.0% in Ma19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
G/EFA 9.7% in Jul19
GUE 6.9% in Jul14
EFDD 5.5% in May19
And here's a figure showing the fragmentation of the party system in the EP. The numbers above the line are the "Effective Number of Parties" (ENP) at the start of an EP, and the numbers below are the ENP at the end of an EP.

6.5 "effective" parties in the EP is a new high.
Read 4 tweets
26 May 19
Ready for the #EP2019 results tonight, here's a summary of our forecast (w/ @kevcunningham & Michael Marsh) compared to the @EuropeElects and @POLITICOEurope forecasts (@sarahobolt @AgataGostynska @LuukvMiddelaar)
Just noticed a slight error. Sorry! Here are the correct figures
And here's where you can find more details: ecfr.eu/page/-/EUROPEA…
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan 19
Quick take after tonight's votes:

After the rejection of the Cooper and Reeves amendments, and the acceptance of the Brady amendment, it looks like we're down to 2 options: May's Deal vs. No Deal, as delay of Brexit has been taken off the table.
But, I think it is unlikely the EU27 will budge on the backstop, as Tusk and others have stated, which will mean the ERG and other Tory Brexiteers will prefer No Deal to May's Deal
In which case, we will be heading for a No Deal Brexit unless Labour are willing to support May's Deal
Read 5 tweets

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