Today's most interesting thing: a Hacker News thread from 2010 on tech predictions for 2020 news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
I count 95 predictions in total. A casual inspection suggests maybe... 30-ish were ultimately correct in some capacity?
So a ~32% hit rate. Predictions are hard!
I count 95 predictions in total. A casual inspection suggests maybe... 30-ish were ultimately correct in some capacity?
So a ~32% hit rate. Predictions are hard!
Some winners in the thread:
- The 2010s become the post-PC decade; smartphones take over emerging markets
- Moore's law decelerates below 11 nm
- Social network analysis, data mining, and the "politics of information" become a core liberal issue
- Elon Musk "makes some big waves"
- The 2010s become the post-PC decade; smartphones take over emerging markets
- Moore's law decelerates below 11 nm
- Social network analysis, data mining, and the "politics of information" become a core liberal issue
- Elon Musk "makes some big waves"
A sample of the many, many losers:
- eBooks displace traditional books
- A new desktop OS challenges Windows
- Augmented reality takes off
- Ubiquitous computing / RFID takes off
- Google commoditizes the telcos
- Facebook becomes the next Myspace
- eBooks displace traditional books
- A new desktop OS challenges Windows
- Augmented reality takes off
- Ubiquitous computing / RFID takes off
- Google commoditizes the telcos
- Facebook becomes the next Myspace
And what's not mentioned is just as interesting as what is:
- No Bitcoin
- No ChinaTech
- No SaaS
- Surprisingly little mention of cloud computing, other than a single post on how the cloud's lower barriers to entry will result in the disruption of Facebook (close, but no cigar)
- No Bitcoin
- No ChinaTech
- No SaaS
- Surprisingly little mention of cloud computing, other than a single post on how the cloud's lower barriers to entry will result in the disruption of Facebook (close, but no cigar)
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