China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) Profile picture
Jan 11, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
CF40 issued an analysis on the Middle East "black swan" mp.weixin.qq.com/s/C_WGo4CsVcPw…
The Middle East is the "heart" of global oil supply. The #Gulf reserves account for 60% of the world's oil reserves, and production accounts for nearly 1/3.
One of the most direct consequences of the #US-Iranconflict is the soaring oil prices.
In the short term, sharp changes in oil prices do have a short-term impact on China.
Because oil accounts for less than 20% of China's energy structure, and energy costs do not account for a large proportion of the total economic cost, oil price fluctuations will generally be more easily absorbed by the economy and will not have effect on the total output.
Only a sharp and long-term rise in oil prices will make a difference on the economy and inflation. Once navigation in the #StraitofHormuz is blocked, Iraq ’s export will be suspended almost completely, and the risks facing Kuwait and Qatar are second only to Iraq.

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More from @ChinaFinance40

Feb 22, 2023
According to CF40’s latest macroeconomic quarterly report ‘China's Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Sustainability of Government Debt’, China has never heavily relied on budgetary spending to provide counter-cyclical stimulus. 1/5
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Feb 22, 2023
China could consider implementing negative individual income tax (IIT) to boost consumption and employment, advises CF40 research department. 1/4
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Feb 21, 2023
The PBC's "benign neglect," an indirect policy tool devised in 2022 to influence the value of the RMB, was quite successful. It allows the market to determine the exchange rate while retaining capital controls as a last resort.1/5
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Feb 17, 2023
Despite the shrinking working-age population, there is a tremendous pool of surplus rural labor in China., said Caifang, Chief Expert of National Think Tank of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 1/5
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Feb 16, 2023
#China could consider implementing negative individual income tax (IIT) to boost consumption and employment, suggests CF40 Research Department in a 2022 policy brief ‘Negative Individual Income Tax: Some Thoughts on Policies to Drive Employment and Consumption’. 1/4
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Feb 3, 2023
Given China’s macroeconomic environment in December 2022, the following policies should be taken to boost China’s economic growth and deal with potential risks, said ZHANG Bin, CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow: 1/5
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