Early modelling estimates of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions of the #Wuhan #coronovirus #nCoV2019 outbreak - our preprint is out now! @JonRead15 @JessicaBridgen @datcummings @chrism0dwk @LancasterUni @UF @CVRinfo
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Another link for paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7Ewl…
Summary estimates:
- early basic reproduction number (R0), i.e. the average number of persons that a new case will infect in a fully susceptible population, is 3.6-4.0. This is higher than the @WHO
estimate of 1.4-2.5, but within the range reported for #SARS in 2002/3 (R0 2-5)
- early basic reproduction number (R0), i.e. the average number of persons that a new case will infect in a fully susceptible population, is 3.6-4.0. This is higher than the @WHO
estimate of 1.4-2.5, but within the range reported for #SARS in 2002/3 (R0 2-5)
@WHO - Majority (95%) of infections in Wuhan are unidentified, suggesting a large number of infections in the community.
- Assuming no control interventions or change in transmission, further outbreaks in Chinese cities outside of Wuhan and increasing rates of exported cases to other countries are likely. >250,000 infected cases predicted in 2 weeks’ time.
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