Thread by @DrToniHo

Delighted to share our paper out in @bmj_latest today.

Risk stratification of hospitalised patients with #COVID19: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score

bmj.com/content/370/bm…

@ISARIC1 @CCPUKstudy @CVRinfo @UofGlasgow @EdinburghUni @LivUni @imperialcollege

2/ We developed & validated an easy-to-use 8-variable risk stratification score to predict inpatient mortality in hospitalised adults with #COVID19

The 4C Mortality Score uses patient demographics, clinical & blood parameters commonly available at the time of hospital admission:

3/ The 4C Mortality Score (range 0-21 pt) stratifies hospitalised patients into 4 risk groups, which can help clinicians optimise treatment:
- Low (<3) - 1% inhospital death
- Intermediate (4-8) - 10%
- High (9-14) - 31%
- Very high (15-21) - 62%

4/ The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing risk stratification scores for pneumonia, sepsis and COVID-19.

5/ Caveats:
- It is designed to support, not replace clinical decision making.
- The score is derived from an adult hospitalised patient cohort, hence unsuitable for use in children or in community.
- We will monitor he score's performance going forward given the changing

6/
(cont'd) epidemiology of hospitalised COVID19 pts.
- External validation required to determine if score is generalisable in settings outside UK

The score can be quickly generated using this online calculator: isaric4c.net/risk/

Team effort: @sr_knight1 @_Riinu_ @profbuchan @gail_carson @Tom_Drake1 @OutbreakJake @c_j_fairfield @Rishi_K_Gupta @PeterHorby @mnoursad @clarkdrussell @DrAzizSheikh @RunningMadProf @livvyswann @LanceTurtle @p_openshaw @kennethbaillie @ProfCalumSemple @abdocherty79 @ewenharrison

Funding by: @NIHRresearch @The_MRC