My Jewish spouse loves Christmas. Okay, fine, who doesn’t?

Converting to a “Valentine’s tree” seemed a bit excessive.

Came home from a trip tonight. Dear god, how do I make it stop? Image
Came downstairs and the tree is transformed with whoopee cushions, fake(?) poop, and cockroaches all-over it.

I am stuck in the house with an April Fools Tree and the family members responsible for it. Image
When my spouse commits, she commits.

Me? I’m starting to have my doubts. Image
Now she is using the tree as a wedge between me and our almost 11-year old. Image
For completeness sake, here is the originating tree and her first bastardization of Christmas tree into a tree for every holiday. ImageImage
Some days are better than others. This is one of those "so this is my life now" days. Image
I know that there was a time without a tree in my foyer. I cannot remember that time. Image
Her favorite housemate has a birthday coming up.

Yes, the tree topper is a portrait. Thanks for asking. Image
Is that a RB Tree?
It just can’t be. ImageImage
If I were to get onboard with a new official holiday, "Back to school" Day would be the one. ImageImage
The tree has entered its passive-aggressive phase. ImageImage
I have always found movies about existential dread of the inevitable to be more terrifying than jump-scares.

I think we all saw this one coming. ImageImage
Okay, that's a holiday I can get behind. Image
I can at least take solace that the end is near. I mean it can't go on forever. Right? RIGHT? Image
After the Thanksgiving tree went up, I let my guard down thinking that there's only one holiday left. I didn't account for the other daughter's birthday. ImageImage
What in the fresh hell.

This is supposed to be the end. It’s expanding.

Even replication has turned against me in 2020.

My house is 15% tree. ImageImageImage
I wake up early. My spouse does not.

I sneak in the dark to protect her sleep.

My spouse set spiny traps that had me hopping in muffled pain every few steps all the way downstairs.

Imagine the extra horror when I discovered what they were.

What did I do to deserve this?
I thank @courtneybrubin for not mentioning anything about tree decorating. However, Bethany's ethos does still come through in her quotes and advice giving me some worry of spontaneous ideation. To those with a family member so "inspired," my apologies.

nytimes.com/2020/12/26/wel…
A fitting finale for 2020, but also for the tree? I dare not get my hopes too high for reclaiming my foyer in 2021. Image
My current hypothesis is that, for Bethany, the tree represents "normal" and once she perceives that we are back to normal, it will be retired to its regularly scheduled holiday appearances. ImageImageImage
Oh no. Are we doing it again?

How do I get out of this loop? I already love her genuinely. Do I have to find a way to love the tree? ImageImage
She's making it harder and harder to complain about this dang tree. ImageImageImage
International Women's Day

With this new trend of featuring people on the tree, I estimate that every person in the world will have appeared after 107 more trees, or is it 10^7? ImageImage
At what point can we conclude we have hit the nadir of the holiday tree? Celebrating National Napping Day has got to be close. ImageImage
The Earth Day tree begat those terrifying mini trees and the memory of them assaulting my feet in the dark morning hours many moons (and trees) ago. ImageImage
The tree now is in its 2nd round of birthday celebrations. And, a hamster has joined the household. I am vaccinated, why is pandemic life still going the wrong direction? ImageImage

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More from @BrianNosek

9 Feb
10 years of replication and reform in psychology. What has been done and learned?

Our latest paper prepared for the Annual Review summarizes the advances in conducting and understanding replication and the reform movement that has spawned around it.

psyarxiv.com/ksfvq/

1/
We open w/ anecdote of the 2014 special issue of Social Psychology. The event encapsulated themes that played out over the decade. The issue brought attention to replications, Registered Reports, & spawned “repligate”

econtent.hogrefe.com/toc/zsp/45/3

Figure from royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 15 tweets
10 Sep 20
Our prospective replication study released!

5 years: 16 novel discoveries get round-robin replication.

Preregistration, large samples, transparency of materials.

Replication effect sizes 97% the size of confirmatory tests!

psyarxiv.com/n2a9x

Lead: @JProtzko 1/
When teams made a new discovery, they submitted it to a prereg’d confirmatory test (orange).

Confirmatory tests subjected to 4 replications (Ns ~ 1500 each)

Original team wrote full methods section. Team conducted independent replications (green) and a self-replication (blue).
Based on confirmatory effect sizes and replication sample sizes, we’d expect 80% successful replications (p<.05). We observed 86%.

Exceeding possible replication rate based on power surely due to chance. But, outcome clearly indicates that high replicability is achievable
Read 10 tweets
25 May 19
Happy to elaborate. Think of preregistration of analysis plans as hypothesizing, data analysis, and scenario planning all rolled into one and without knowing what the data are. This creates a novel decision-making situation. 1/
For example, the first time preregistering an analysis plan, many people report being shocked at how hard it is without seeing the data. It produces a recognition that our analysis decision-making (and hypothesizing) had been much more data contingent than we realized. 2/
Without the data, there is a lot of new mental work to articulate precisely what the hypothesis is and how the data could be used to evaluate that hypothesis. My odd experience was believing that I had been doing that all along, w/out realizing that I used so much discretion. 3/
Read 12 tweets
8 Jan 19
Some predictions about whether the researcher's ideology effects their likelihood of replicating a prior result. ht @jayvanbavel

First, I have no doubt that ideology CAN influence replicability. Classic Rosenthal work + more provides good basis.

So, under what conditions?
1. Ideology may guide selection of studies to replicate. More likely to pursue implausible X because it disagrees with my priors; and pursue plausible Y because it agrees with my priors.

On balance, this may be a benefit of ideology to help with self-correction and bolstering.
2. Ideology may shape design of studies. More likely to select design conditions to fail if I don't like the idea; more likely to select design to succeed if I like the idea.

This is a problem because of tendency for overgeneralization of limited conditions to phenomenon. But,
Read 8 tweets
19 Nov 18
Many Labs 2: 28 findings, 60+ samples, ~7000 participants each study, 186 authors, 36 nations.

Successfully replicated 14 of 28 psyarxiv.com/9654g

ML2 may be more important than Reproducibility Project: Psychology. Here’s why...

@michevianello @fredhasselman @raklein3
ML2 minimized boring reasons for failure. First, using original materials & Registered Reports cos.io/rr all 28 replications met expert reviewed quality control standards. Failure to replicate not easily dismissed as replication incompetence. psyarxiv.com/9654g
Second, the total ML2 replication median sample size (n = 7157) was 64x original median sample size (n = 112). If there was an effect to detect, even a much smaller one, we would detect it. Ultimate estimates have very high precision. psyarxiv.com/9654g
Read 15 tweets
27 Aug 18
We replicated 21 social science experiments in Science or Nature. We succeeded with 13. Replication effect sizes were half of originals. All materials, data, code, & reports: osf.io/pfdyw/, preprint socarxiv.org/4hmb6/, Nature Human Behavior nature.com/articles/s4156…
Using prediction markets we found that researchers were very accurate in predicting which studies would replicate and which would not. (blue=successful replications; yellow=failed replications; x-axis=market closing price) socarxiv.org/4hmb6/ nature.com/articles/s4156… #SSRP
Design ensured 90% power to detect an effect size half as large as original study. Replications averaged 5x the sample size of originals. We obtained original materials in all but one case, and original authors provided very helpful feedback on design. socarxiv.org/4hmb6/
Read 22 tweets

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