What constitutes an "expert" in a novel epidemic?
Serious question.
Many laypeople and even doctors are looking to "experts" on #COVID19. Who do we turn to? For what?
Some thoughts:
1/ First thing to remember: anyone claiming to be an "expert" on #COVID19, a completely new disease for which the medical/scientific data is changing almost daily, probably isn't.
Most doctors, including myself, will not say they are "experts" on #COVID19.
2/ What medical doctors are trained to do is:
-take care of patients (some specifically for infectious disease)
-read the medical literature/ interpret it, albeit with caution
-for some, run clinical trials, produce the data/medical literature that the rest of us read
3/ My personal opinion is that early in an epidemic, there are many "experts"--people who are expert in their specialty/ line of work.
And then there are no "experts"- and what I mean by that is that we are all still learning about this new disease.
4/ We have clinical doctors who have expertise treating patients w/ infectious diseases.
We have epidemiologists who are experts in studying disease spread/dynamics.
We have epidemic responders who are experts in understanding how to manage epidemics.
5/ We have virologists who experts in understanding the science.
We have journalists who are experts in communicating the science.
We have political leaders who are experts in managing the politics.
We have anthropologists who are experts in how people interact w/ disease.
6/ We have nurses, pharmacists, & other clinical staff who are experts in caring for patients.
We have pharmaceutical companies who are experts in developing vaccines & rapid diagnostics tests.
We have lawyers who are experts in the legal aspects of epidemics.
7/ My point is-- when we "defer" to the "experts", really ask what it is you are wanting to know about #COVID19.
Because an expert in one area of an epidemic is not an expert in all areas.
Anyone who claims they know it all should be questioned.
8/ I'll end by saying I am not claiming by any means to be a #COVID19 "expert".
2/ Earlier in the epidemic, @MonicaGandhi9 & Dr Rutherford from UCSF brought up variolation hypothesis as it relates to masking
Could masks have the benefit of reducing the viral load you are exposed to & could this potentially lessen severity of disease + prime immune system
3/ What is concerning now— if you pull back on mask mandates with high community incidence, especially in places with low vaccination / low booster rates
Lots more unmasked viral spread
Higher potential proportion of #LongCovid cases esp in these areas
More hospital-based spread of #covid19 during #Omicron than any prior waves. We knew this was a problem from prior waves— yet there is ongoing resistance to acknowledge it, to test for it, or do more to prevent it.
“The total # of people who contract Covid-19 while in the hospital remains unclear bc these figures only count patients who were in the hospital at least 14 consecutive days & don’t account for people who test positive after leaving.”
In our @JAMA_current piece, we lay out a few key reasons that hospital-based #covid19 transmission is likely underappreciated.
1/ few hospitals systematically test patients throughout and following their hospital stays. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
2/ “Most hospitals only test patients for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of admission and therefore may miss some infections acquired after admission, especially because approximately 40% of SARS-CoV-2 infections are mild or asymptomatic and thus do not trigger repeat testing.”
3/ “Furthermore, hospital stays for many non–COVID-19–related conditions are short, so some infections will only develop after discharge and will be missed or misattributed to posthospital exposures”
1/ The biggest confounder in this study was the possibility that those who were more likely to mask in 2021 were more likely to only be doing lower risk indoor activities vs those without masks who were more likely to be doing higher risk ones.
2/ For example, it is possible that those who reported not wearing a mask indoors were also more likely to be eating indoors or drinking at bars indoors near others
while those reporting wearing masks indoor may have been shopping for essentials in less crowded settings
3/ Unfortunately, we don’t have that information (authors could run this analysis though)
We only know that those who reported always wearing a face mask were much less likely to test positive than those who reported never wearing a face mask
2/ The data in favor of using N95 respirators for shared air / public indoor spaces during surges will continue to grow. Those who are skeptics will eventually come around. But the time lag will result in many needless infections, hospitalizations and deaths. It already has.
3/ Limitations of studies are always important.
Authors mention: “First, this study did not account for other preventive behaviors that could influence risk for acquiring infection, including adherence to physical distancing recommendations”