Lets talk Scarry Terry McLaurin.
We'll go through what his college profle would have looked like through the #bulletproofprospect lens
Then discuss his rookie year and what I am doing with him.
Then you can obviously do whatever the heck you want with him. It's YOUR team
We'll go through what his college profle would have looked like through the #bulletproofprospect lens
Then discuss his rookie year and what I am doing with him.
Then you can obviously do whatever the heck you want with him. It's YOUR team
Terry checked the easy box. Size.
6'0 208 pounds is big enough to play all of the WR roles.
6'0 208 pounds is big enough to play all of the WR roles.
As for athleticism, Terry ran real fast.
Like REALLY fast.
4.35 is crazy fast. Like 98th percentile fast.
He also was pretty terrific across the board in his athletic testing with only his agility being mediocre.
Here are some size/speed comps for him (first 3 rounds)
Like REALLY fast.
4.35 is crazy fast. Like 98th percentile fast.
He also was pretty terrific across the board in his athletic testing with only his agility being mediocre.
Here are some size/speed comps for him (first 3 rounds)
A really good sign for a WR prospect is if they are an early declare for the NFL draft or not.
Terry played 4 seasons at Ohio State. He was not an early declare.
Chart courtesy of @AmItheRealBlair
Article can be found here
rotoviz.com/2019/01/one-we…
Terry played 4 seasons at Ohio State. He was not an early declare.
Chart courtesy of @AmItheRealBlair
Article can be found here
rotoviz.com/2019/01/one-we…
The next step on the profile is college production.
I use market share of college receiving yards because it works and also @DLFootball has this slick graphing tool that allows you to easily see how a player performed in college.
dynastyleaguefootball.com/college-market…
I use market share of college receiving yards because it works and also @DLFootball has this slick graphing tool that allows you to easily see how a player performed in college.
dynastyleaguefootball.com/college-market…
The vast majority of top receivers accorinding to DLF ADP all have good college production.
I went through the top 25 here.
I went through the top 25 here.
Here is how Terry produced by contrast.
Also most of the the players from the top 25 dynasty WRs per DLF ADP you will notice entered the draft after their age 20 or 21 college season.
Terry entered after his age 22 season making him an old prospect.
Terry entered after his age 22 season making him an old prospect.
If we got back and look at Terry's comps we can sort them into hits and misses.
I generally use two top 24 seasons as a hit for WRs to weed out the one-hit wonders.
As you can see Amari is a hit, I think we can all assume DJM will hit, and... the rest not so much.
I generally use two top 24 seasons as a hit for WRs to weed out the one-hit wonders.
As you can see Amari is a hit, I think we can all assume DJM will hit, and... the rest not so much.
So now if we compare Terry to each of the two groups in terms of college production we have:
Hits: Amari, DJM
It should also be noted that both Amari and DJM were taken in the first round; 1.04 and 1.24 respectively.
McLaurin went at 3.12 for comparison
Hits: Amari, DJM
It should also be noted that both Amari and DJM were taken in the first round; 1.04 and 1.24 respectively.
McLaurin went at 3.12 for comparison
Here is Terry plotted with the misses from his comp list.
Even among the misses there were some high calibre producers. Terry was not among them.
Even among the misses there were some high calibre producers. Terry was not among them.
Something that has become really popular in the war against market share is the argument that some of these players play with other good players!?
Therefore they cant be expected to dominate!!!
Therefore they cant be expected to dominate!!!
In McLaurin's freshmen year he was held without a catch by guys like MT, Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller.
PS. a lot of really good wr's tend to contribute as freshmen, some even dominate.
Needless to say, Terry did not contribute as a 19 year old freshman.
PS. a lot of really good wr's tend to contribute as freshmen, some even dominate.
Needless to say, Terry did not contribute as a 19 year old freshman.
FWIW Miller and Marshall have combined for 423 receiving yards in the NFL to date.
MT on the other hand... is pretty good.
MT on the other hand... is pretty good.
Then in 2016 at the ripe old age of 20. McLaurin was outproduced by 19 year old Curtis Samuel. Fair enough.
Noah Brown, Dontre Wilson, Marcus Baugh, KJ Hill, and Parris Campbell.
Noah Brown, Dontre Wilson, Marcus Baugh, KJ Hill, and Parris Campbell.
From everyone not named Curtis Samuel they have combined for a grand total of 214 receiving yards so far in the NFL.
127 of those yards came from Parris Campbell in his rookie year.
KJ Hill is projected to be a mid round pick in this years NFL draft.
127 of those yards came from Parris Campbell in his rookie year.
KJ Hill is projected to be a mid round pick in this years NFL draft.
Then finally in 2017 he was able to shove a few of the aforementioned superstars aside and grab a solid chunk of the receiving game, rolling up 436 of the teams 3,679 yards.
A truly commanding performance placing him firmly third in receiving yards on his college team.
A truly commanding performance placing him firmly third in receiving yards on his college team.
Thats like 11% of the teams passing game. That is highly not dominant.
But when you have Terry's athletic gifts you cant be expected to out produce guys like this that are two years younger than you...
or... maybe?! 🤷♂️
But when you have Terry's athletic gifts you cant be expected to out produce guys like this that are two years younger than you...
or... maybe?! 🤷♂️
and then finally we get to McLaurin's crowning achievement
As one of the oldest and most athletic players in all of college football McLaurin was able to finally dominate, not only all of CFB, but surely his own team in his 4th and final season of college football
Wait a tick..
As one of the oldest and most athletic players in all of college football McLaurin was able to finally dominate, not only all of CFB, but surely his own team in his 4th and final season of college football
Wait a tick..
Somehow Dwayne Haskins and the Ohio coaching staff felt it would be better off getting Johnie Dixon?! more receptions than our future NFL superstar Terry "mothertrucking" McLaurin?!?!
I think at this point you can probably tell that I wasnt really a big fan of ol' scarry Terry as he entered the NFL last season.
But then last season happened.
Terry was pretty exceptional.
But then last season happened.
Terry was pretty exceptional.
Terry went out and put up 58 receptions for 919 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Thats pretty damn fine rookie season.
And it has many wondering if his college profile was all a mirage?
Thats pretty damn fine rookie season.
And it has many wondering if his college profile was all a mirage?
I am a firm beleiver that we need to look at the entire profile when we have something that is in stark contrast to the rest of it.
So personally I am not going to throw out 4 years of data for 1 year of data.
So personally I am not going to throw out 4 years of data for 1 year of data.
The comparisons I often here are that MT is an outlier from Ohio St and McLaurin is too!
Look at what MT did when he came out! This is common sense, Ohio spreads the ball around too much, has too many good players, etc.
Look at what MT did when he came out! This is common sense, Ohio spreads the ball around too much, has too many good players, etc.
well, we did just look at what they did and how they spread the ball around etc.
Among the players that went to Ohio the same time as McLaurin, MT and Curtis Samuel stand out as the two best pros so far
MT and CS also dominated at Ohio state at one point in time. Terry did not
Among the players that went to Ohio the same time as McLaurin, MT and Curtis Samuel stand out as the two best pros so far
MT and CS also dominated at Ohio state at one point in time. Terry did not
One of the things that I find interesting is that I've been told a lot that market share stats don't matter becuase someone HAS to catch the ball in college.
So just because someone dominated it doesnt make them good.
I completely agree.
So just because someone dominated it doesnt make them good.
I completely agree.
Here's the thing.
That is exactly the argument I keep hearing for Terry in the NFL, "he dominated as a rookie, look at his counting stats!"
58 for 919 and 7. remember?!?!
That is exactly the argument I keep hearing for Terry in the NFL, "he dominated as a rookie, look at his counting stats!"
58 for 919 and 7. remember?!?!
Here's the thing.
He literally competed with nobody.
If there is one thing that I know for certain it's that no NFL team is going to pass for 0 yards.
That means that someone is going to have to convert targets into receptions and yards.
He literally competed with nobody.
If there is one thing that I know for certain it's that no NFL team is going to pass for 0 yards.
That means that someone is going to have to convert targets into receptions and yards.
I really dont think his counting stats is the argument I'd be falling back on if I were a Terry Truther.
In any event, the reason I think there was and should've been more optimism for MT after his rookie year was that he showed up and pushed aside a perenial 1,000 yard receiver from day 1 (Brandin Cooks).
That matters to me.
That matters to me.
Now, where I think the shimmers of light for Terry possibly being our next great outlier are in his rookie year efficiency.
Here is a list of all of the rookie WR's to put up over 8.0 yards per target.
He is amongst great company.
Here is a list of all of the rookie WR's to put up over 8.0 yards per target.
He is amongst great company.
You might be thinking to yourself, "but Terry was an OLD rookie".
Here is another list that highlights all players to have hit that mark at age 23 or 24.
An impressive list as well.
Here is another list that highlights all players to have hit that mark at age 23 or 24.
An impressive list as well.
And last but not least (I dont think I can share his actual grade) but @PFF gave Terry a Scarry high grade
I havent looked into the historical signifcance of that but I have to imagine it matters
If I were to grind the film, the way PFF does it is the most appealing to me
I havent looked into the historical signifcance of that but I have to imagine it matters
If I were to grind the film, the way PFF does it is the most appealing to me
These last three tweets are the reason that I have moved McLaurin up my rankings from his rookie year more so than his counting stats.
But I still have concerns and that has kept me lagging behind consensus.
But I still have concerns and that has kept me lagging behind consensus.
At the end of the day, I thnk Terry McLaurin is a super risky player to hold in dynasty
Its not so much that I think he is a bad football player, its that his path to stardom is so rare that Id just prefer someone else to join along for the ride in case it all comes crshing down
Its not so much that I think he is a bad football player, its that his path to stardom is so rare that Id just prefer someone else to join along for the ride in case it all comes crshing down
There are several WRs going right after him that I'd prefer in dynasty and several players from other position groups.
