Thread by @whippletom

The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk

Updates came after seeing Italy - and proportion of patients in ICU

"We will be in quite different world for year or more"

Neil Ferguson - Imperial.

There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine.

"The idea of controlling a virus like this while having a vaguely functioning society has put us in uncharted territory."

"We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that. " - Prof Azra Ghani

Best guess 35-50k people infected.

(currently infected)

"Closing schools would have some effect at reducing transmission. Closing schools on its own will have a significant effect on healthcare capacity.

If I was to guess, it is quite likely to happen"

"The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand."

Neil Ferguson:

"The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology."

We are going to be in lockdown for quite some time.

We are in this for the *very* long haul

More on how long this should last

More from Azra Ghani, Imperial

"The trade off is, do we accept that there could be deaths now? Or do we try and push things out to the future in the hope that something else will come along? We think the latter is the right way to do it."

I have never been in a press conference like it.

Paper abstract