Thread by @Eljarh

Thread - #Turkey stepping up its drone operations in #Libya inflicting some heavy losses on the LNA. Yesterday, a cargo plane was destroyed with a Turkish UAV strike after it landed in #Tarhuna. Eastern authorities claimed the cargo was carrying medical/food supplies to #Tarhuna.

1- In coordination with GNA, #Turkey is launching a 3-stage operation in #Tripoli. 1- cut-off LNA supply lines. 2- degrade LNA capabilities & in west #Libya & force its forces to retreat. 3- Increase Turkish military footprint in western #Libya including bases in Tripoli/Misrata.

2- LNA & external backers are intent on foiling #Turkey's plan i.e. will escalate. They see GNA/Turkey's recent escalation as a ground for a major escalation & use of excessive force on their part - this is tragic for civilians in #Tripoli. #Libya

3- LNA & its external backers' plan will include an attempt to take #Misrata/#Mitiga out of function completely. As far as the LNA concerned both airports have become bases for major Turkish drone operations & deliveries. #Turkey will have taken measures in anticipation of this.

4- The LNA & some of its external backers are still convinced that even with current levels of Turkish support to the GNA, they are still in a good position to capture #Tripoli. I believe this is due to a number of crude assumptions than on sound calculous/thinking. #Libya

5- With its recent escalation & 3-stage plan, #Turkey is putting the LNA & its external backer's resolve to test. #Turkey's 3-stage plan focuses on securing western #Libya & at a later stage will include plans to expand in the oil/gas-rich southwest.

6- detailed maps of oil/gas infrastructure & installations with a focus on the southwest already on the Turks' tables (have been for a while now). The long-term goal for the Turks here would be a longlasting/undisputed influence in western #Libya with military presence. #Libya

7- If #Turkey succeeds in reaching stage 3 of its plan. This will mean that all its military personnel & assets have been secured from a militaristic point of view i.e. secured bases, advanced air-defense systems & extensive drones program. #Libya

8- The ways in which LNA external backers can support the LNA to thwart the Turkish plan would include an increase in direct action on behalf of the LNA in the form of targeted airstrikes against Turkish/GNA targets. In addition, advanced jamming/air defense systems. #Libya