My Authors
Read all threads
As we all grow weary of lockdowns & restrictions, & some case-counts seem to plateau, there's restlessness towards ending these to limit economic harm & 'get back to normal'

Let me be very, very clear:
There is no cheap or easy way out of this pandemic.


While the restrictions currently in place are damaging economically & socially, they are *working* - & saving lives.

There seems to be a bit of a fantasy that because things 'aren't so bad now,' we can start lifting restrictions & things will just be 'normal' again. 💰🌞

I cannot emphasise enough how much this *is not the case*. Restrictions are working - the minute we ease them, the virus will quickly regain ground! ☠️

There is no short cut way #COVID19 isn't going to continue to cost a lot. But we have a choice in *where* those costs are

3 main options:

1. Lift restrictions. Cost = Lives, hospitals, economy. ☠️💸
2. Continue strict restrictions until vaccine. Cost = Economy, society, mental 💸🙁
3. #TestTraceIsolate Cost = Equipment, personpower, organisation 🔬👩🏻‍🔬

(the hashtag is a spoiler)

1. Lift restrictions

The virus isn't less dangerous now: we are stopping it with restrictions. As soon as we relax, the virus *will* return - if we do nothing, it will kill millions & hospitalise millions more. Do we really think the economy will be 'normal' through this?

@voxdotcom sums it up: "It imagines that we simply let a highly lethal virus kill perhaps millions of Americans, hospitalize 10s of millions more, & crush the health system, while the rest of us go about our daily economic & social business"…

2. Continue strict restrictions until a vaccine

While this may contain the virus, it's simply unsustainable. People will start breaking lockdowns, & the economic cost will grow unbearable. Deaths will rise from other causes, like suicide, or bloodclots caused by immobility.

3. #TestTraceIsolate

No, this option isn't easy. And yes, it'll cost money & take organisation. But if really want to get back to anything like 'normal' - here's our best chance.

There are variations in how it might work in practice, but the theory is the same:

We must *increase testing* to have a better measure of the epidemic in our population & to allow people testing positive to *isolate* ASAP. Then, their contacts must be *traced* so that they too can *isolate* & be *tested*.

But the rest of us can continue our lives!

However it's done, this will require a *big* step up in effort & coordination - there's no doubt about that. But to paraphrase Roosevelt: "Nothing worth doing comes without effort."

The thing is - the other options aren't less costly. They aren't really other options.

*There is no cheap & easy way out of this pandemic*

It's going to be hard, cost $$ money, & require huge effort

Or, we kill people & the economy.

The sooner we accept our path - our 'Apollo mission' (@trvrb), the sooner we progress!

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #TestTraceIsolate

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Dr Emma Hodcroft

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!