Thread by @DrLeeJones

Let's be clear about what the #lockdown is and isn't achieving, and at what cost.

It *is* preventing the NHS from collapsing under the strain of #COVID19. Evidence mostly suggests ICUs/wards are strained, but coping. PPE is insufficient, but it's not carnage. 1/14

The #lockdown does seem to be "flattening the curve", so that the peak of serious cases remains below the total capacity of acute hospitals. That's what "protect the NHS means", in the govt's slogan.

2/14

But how has this been achieved?

By cancelling/ postponing swathes of non-emergency care - incl. for v serious conditions. E.g. chemotherapy is postponed.

thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…

Hence, there are x4 MORE empty beds than usual.

hsj.co.uk/acute-care/nhs…

3/14

So, while the emergency repurposing of NHS hospitals for #COVID19 means fewer die of COVID, there will be a huge health burden from postponed diagnostics and treatment for other diseases - possibly higher than the COVID death toll.

spiked-online.com/2020/04/16/the…

4/14

Why is this happening? Because the British state was not prepared for a pandemic despite **15yrs** of planning for one.

thefullbrexit.com/covid19-state-…

Pathetic inadequacy of material resources constrained policy options from the outset.

5/14

Meagre testing capacity = no ability to pursue meaningful "trace-and-contain" strategy (à la South Korea), even if we'd wanted to.

Testing was rationed from the outset, allowing #COVID19 to circulate unmonitored, requiring panicked lockdown.

https://twitter.com/drleejones/status/1238165703146045442

6/14

#Lockdown has also been at enormous economic and social cost.

Unemployment could reach 2m and the economy contract by 35%. theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2…

1m people shunted onto Universal Credit, a cruel and insufficient benefit. cityam.com/nearly-1m-peop…

7/14

Calls for help from domestic violence are up 700%. theguardian.com/society/2020/a…

Unreasonable police authoritarianism is rampant.
spiked-online.com/2020/04/14/the…

8/14

I could go on. The point is: while #lockdown prevented the NHS from collapsing under the weight of serious #COVID19 cases, thus saving lives, that comes at a huge, currently under-counted cost. These desperate emergency measures are not an "achievement" for govt to trumpet.

9/14

Moreover, #lockdown doesn't solve the pandemic. It hasn't magically reversed the UK's pathetic lack of material preparation.

We're still only doing 14,000 tests a day. That's nowhere near enough for a meaningful "trace-and-contain" strategy.

10/14

The NHS is only now developing an app to trace cases and contacts. This app has many problems (perhaps necessitating starting over), and take-up will be voluntary.

unherd.com/2020/04/can-yo…

And it'll be useless without vastly increased testing capacity.

11/14

This is why the govt can't say when #lockdown ends: it simply hasn't got the material capacity to cope with a return to normal life.

No track-and-trace = no containment.

No containment = infections resurge, NHS overwhelmed.

NHS overwhelmed = another lockdown.

12/14

So it's not merely that there isn't a plan to exit lockdown - though that seems true.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

It's that there can't be one, because the requisite material capacities aren't in place. And that is, above all, a political failure of successive governments.

13/14

So, all those who claim this pandemic "isn't political", and it "isn't the time" to discuss politics - you're wrong.

This is the time to ask why the British state has failed so badly. And to consider how we replace the failed post-political state.

thefullbrexit.com/covid19-state-…

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