I am getting a lot of question, and there is a ton of opinions about #Sweden
Hence, I will attempt a 'balanced rant' (a rarity for this medium I know)
This is a follow up to the letter I did yesterday
exantedata.com/on-optimal-soc…
Hence, I will attempt a 'balanced rant' (a rarity for this medium I know)
This is a follow up to the letter I did yesterday
exantedata.com/on-optimal-soc…
On the opinions, it is rather binary:
- Some stress the death stats, and think Sweden is about to go to hell (or already there)
- Others stress Sweden has avoided the burden of intrusive and suffocating social distancing; they want to argue that others should follow: liberate!
- Some stress the death stats, and think Sweden is about to go to hell (or already there)
- Others stress Sweden has avoided the burden of intrusive and suffocating social distancing; they want to argue that others should follow: liberate!
It is true that the death rate in Sweden looks fairly high compared to other countries in the region
This is clear from fatalities per capita, but the caveat is that not all countries report in the same way. Some look at hospital deaths only.
This is clear from fatalities per capita, but the caveat is that not all countries report in the same way. Some look at hospital deaths only.
Another debate is whether social distancing policy can actually be translated into actual social distancing (if it is voluntary). On this front, in this day and age we have fantastic alternative data available in real-time, so we do not have to have a theoretical debate. Chart... 
So the question is, how problematic is 'moderate social distancing'
We can compare to Norway and Denmark, they did aggressive social distancing starting March 13-15, and we should expect results to show up after about 10 days, given asymptomatic period and other lags for COVID
We can compare to Norway and Denmark, they did aggressive social distancing starting March 13-15, and we should expect results to show up after about 10 days, given asymptomatic period and other lags for COVID
So looking at COVID growth (confirmed cumulative cases) from March 24 to now, we get:
Norway: +236%
Denmark: +391%
Sweden: +488%
And the this likely understates the underlying difference, as Sweden tests less (hit ratios around 20% in Sweden, vs <10% in Norway/Denmark).
Norway: +236%
Denmark: +391%
Sweden: +488%
And the this likely understates the underlying difference, as Sweden tests less (hit ratios around 20% in Sweden, vs <10% in Norway/Denmark).
In other words, it is clear that the more moderate social distancing is having an impact on the outbreak. But how problematic is it:
Looking at hospital pressure, there is more pressure in Sweden. But are they are they at or near a breaking point?
Looking at hospital pressure, there is more pressure in Sweden. But are they are they at or near a breaking point?
It seems that hospital pressure in Sweden is plateauing. If that holds up, then perhaps the Swedish model is sustainable. But it is not a conclusion we can draw with any high conviction at this point. We are merely plateauing at a fairly high level, not coming down.
A final observation: The Swedish policy framework is fairly popular locally, judging from opinion polls. This in itself will help to sustain it, but obviously, it could change with the facts on the ground.
The next 1-2 weeks will be a crucial test for the 'Swedish model'. Many have very binary, black and white opinion. But I think we really are in the grey zone. Hence, any local color (Swedish language is ok) or stats is appreciated (especially on the hospital issue).
I will leave at that. The Swedish experiment with moderate social distancing is not over. We are in the crucial phase and a verdict may be warranted by end-April. If the model looks sustainable by then, it will be a template that other countries will use as important inspiration.
