On our count, about 150K tests were done in the US today. NEVERTHELESS, the hit ratios (positives/total) remain extremely high in some states, for example in New Jersey at >50% !! As such, we are still in the 'true-up' phase, and recorded cases will continue to grow fast 1/5 
The VERY high hit ratios for the tests in key states mean that we will continue to see high growth in recorded new cases in coming days (as testing ramps up more), even if the social distancing is having an impact on the underlying (invisible) outbreak. 2/5
In other words, the social distancing effect [which kicked in earlier in NJ than any other US states for example, with key measures around March 16] will be fighting against the 'true-up' effect, which is pushing the growth in recorded cases higher. 3/5
This is a relevant effect to consider when judging the effectiveness of the health policy response. The effectiveness of social distancing cannot be judged by the recorded cases alone; it has to be evaluated looking both and the trajectory of new cases AND testing dynamics. 4/5
The effect of the #socialdistancing efforts will show up with a longer lag in the recorded cases in places with insufficient testing. 5/5
