COVID Update April 23: Today I talked to a dozen health care experts of widely differing views on what we should do & started chasing my biggest question.
Follow if interested. I will try to start before @chriscuomo on @cnn at 10:15 Eastern, but won’t finish until after that. 1/
Follow if interested. I will try to start before @chriscuomo on @cnn at 10:15 Eastern, but won’t finish until after that. 1/
Quiz while you wait if you like?
The US is doing more tests/capita than Italy— yes/no & by how much?
For extra credit, Italy recommends injecting disinfectants into the body? 2/
The US is doing more tests/capita than Italy— yes/no & by how much?
For extra credit, Italy recommends injecting disinfectants into the body? 2/
There is a lot of “expert chatter” about opening the economy” instead of waiting for adequate testing & readiness. 3/
The logic is that time is destroying the economy & potential for a comeback. They make reasonable points.
Small businesses have 27 days of cash. Other medical problems loom. Many people are lower risk. 4/
Small businesses have 27 days of cash. Other medical problems loom. Many people are lower risk. 4/
1 thing is strange & consistent about everyone who argues we need to open is that we can’t count on a vaccine.
They make that argument by pointing to “evidence” that we can’t create a vaccine for many other infectious diseases (like HIV). Thus we might as well open sooner.5/
They make that argument by pointing to “evidence” that we can’t create a vaccine for many other infectious diseases (like HIV). Thus we might as well open sooner.5/
Let me digress about a vaccine. You can find evidence to find whatever fits your narrative.
-It’s easy, we’re “this” close
-It’s 18 months
-It will take years
I don’t know what’s right but one thing I do know is what some people believe depends on the narrative they have. 6/
-It’s easy, we’re “this” close
-It’s 18 months
-It will take years
I don’t know what’s right but one thing I do know is what some people believe depends on the narrative they have. 6/
I’m not discounting this argument or huge frustration at the state of the economy & unemployment. It’s rough. I’d love to change it.
But here’s the thing— they don’t get to decide. 7/
But here’s the thing— they don’t get to decide. 7/
Trump thinks he “shut down the economy.” He didn’t.
We did. For our own safety. Americans & their state & local leaders acted to save lives. 8/
We did. For our own safety. Americans & their state & local leaders acted to save lives. 8/
Likewise “we” are the only people that can “open” the economy. How fast we spend money, how quickly employers hire, how eager people are to restart small businesses....or even whether we send our kids to school...depends on how safe we feel.
So how do we feel?...9/
So how do we feel?...9/
Time out for call with Jose Andres. 10/
Sorry for the delay and the digression. When schools shut, staffing & food funding will disappear. Chef believes the hunger crisis is going to get much much worse. And he’s worried about kids.
He’s on his way to feed 30,000 people in Baltimore tomorrow. 11/
He’s on his way to feed 30,000 people in Baltimore tomorrow. 11/
Back to my point. Americans are pretty clear. They want to do the right thing and are doing the right thing. @KFF had an enlightening study on this. 12/
And Americans are willing to continue to do it for some time. Even at great sacrifice. 13/
Americans have saved hundreds of thousands of lives by following #StayHome guidance.
The economy can come back. Those lives would have been lost forever. 14/
The economy can come back. Those lives would have been lost forever. 14/
Even with this, we have lost 50,000 people. Likely more. 80% of whom don’t know who infected them. This means thousands of people have infected people & never knew it.
And people don’t want that. 15/
And people don’t want that. 15/
By the way, New York is now well-past the number of deaths some internal Administration sources predicted. 16/
The big question I have been asked to address is whether the COVID-19 crisis will cause us to focus in the future on public health and health care for all. 17/
Our future hinges on a single important question:
Will the COVID-19 crisis end up more like the crack epidemic or the opioid epidemic? 18/
Will the COVID-19 crisis end up more like the crack epidemic or the opioid epidemic? 18/
What do I mean by that? To policy makers, the crack epidemic happened to “other” people. Our policy response reflected that.
No resources, no support, criminalization. 19/
No resources, no support, criminalization. 19/
The opioid epidemic happened to “us” as far as powerful people are concerned. To white people. To all communities. Urban & rural. Wealthy & poor.
And our policy reaction had resources, empathy & more holistic policy discussions. 20/
And our policy reaction had resources, empathy & more holistic policy discussions. 20/
People in nursing homes, public housing, prisons & detention centers are getting hurt disproportionately. If that’s how we end up thinking of this crisis, I believe our response will be disappointing. 21/
Certain politicians will of course want to act in that situation. But others won’t. They’ll call for austerity after the crisis. And move to guarded gate communities. 22/
Compare that to what happens if everyone feels this is happening to them, or someone they know. Then both parties will find consensus on major action. Constituents will be both scared & empathetic as they are to the opioid crisis. It will be “our” problem. 23/
We have a piece of the puzzle with this new poll. Today 9% of Americans say they know someone who has died from COVID-19. 40% believe either they or someone else has had COVID-19. 24/
This commentary is clearly just my opinion. I know it sounds cynical & people may not agree.
But my experience with the political process & the lessons of the past is our memories are short & our empathy not evenly distributed. Unless we feel the threat. 25/
But my experience with the political process & the lessons of the past is our memories are short & our empathy not evenly distributed. Unless we feel the threat. 25/
Losing more lives is too expensive a way to learn this lesson. I don’t wish the experience of losing or almost losing someone on one more person. 26/
But those who do will say this is not a normal virus. This causes blood clots, or fuels your immune system, it travels your body from organ system to organ system. These are just early systems with limited data. Undiagnosed deaths can look like many things. 27/
The answer to 2/ of course is Italy has done 2x the tests of the US. And does not have a recommendation of ingesting household cleaners. Or UV light.
I have it on good authority you can get tests at home & Lysol for your countertops. 28/
I have it on good authority you can get tests at home & Lysol for your countertops. 28/
Here’s Brodie with my #Inthebubble co-host. They both say listen at smarturl.it/inthebubble.
Zach goes up against @NateSilver538 in this knowledge episode. 29/
Zach goes up against @NateSilver538 in this knowledge episode. 29/
Expert disagreements over what we should do are a reflection of where we are. Many have put out a “plan” including me, but if that plan is put out with any pride, the reality is likely to make us all humble. 30/
I am not anti-expert. But there is just not enough to be expert about yet.
The things we don’t need much data for are safety & compassion. Let’s anchor there. end/
The things we don’t need much data for are safety & compassion. Let’s anchor there. end/
