Thread by @TomSwarbrick1

To reflect on something for a sec:

We’re hearing a lot now about the possible “biblical” consequences of #COVID19 on some of the world’s poorest countries.

The @WFP already saying that global acute hunger will double by the end of 2020. The target to end acute hunger by 2030..

..is basically not going to happen.

Many of those countries are hugely indebted to a variety of creditors: World Bank, IMF, bilaterally etc.

Therefore it was good news that 10 days ago, the G20 agreed to suspend interest payments on those loans.

jubileedebt.org.uk/press-release/…

But.

One country has given themselves a carve-out.

A country already loaning vast sums to otherwise impoverished African nations.

A country that is offering v low interest rates, funded in part by the state, that they say are “preferential” and don’t require instant repayment...

and where they say, if repayment is a problem, this country will simply step in, pay for whatever project needs completing to be completed, and offer “tailored plans” to restructure the debt

Write offs of debts are not allowed

The only G20 country not to stop interest payment?

China.

The #beltandroad initiative has provided nearly half of all new loans to nations considered to be at a high risk of default.

🇵🇰 - c$21bn- 7%GDP
🇿🇦- c$14bn- 4%GDP

For poorer nations like Djibouti, it’s estimated that by 2017 they owed 80% of GDP to 🇨🇳

So what happens if you can’t pay?

It’s all quite opaque but back in 2011 it was reported that 🇨🇳 cancelled Tajikistan’s debt in exchange for 1k square kilometers of disputed land

In Sri Lanka, 🇨🇳 acquired a 99 year lease on Hambantota Port after debts spiralled

There are lots of other examples of where this debt swap for assets or greater power has happened but not all say it is malign:

thediplomat.com/2019/03/demyst…

But 🇨🇳 is going to be looked at closely in how it responds to the desperation of impoverished countries post #Corona...

as countries signing up to #BRI projects get closer to home...

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt…

@MaajidNawaz @ChinaResearchGp @Tobias_Ellwood @elisabethbraw