Wow! The presidents of Germany’s big science institutions @maxplanckpress, @Fraunhofer, @helmholtz_de and @LeibnizWGL have issued a joint statement on #covid19 strategies based on mathematical analysis of the current situation. (mpg.de/14759871/coron…). Quick thread
Main points:
- reproduction number R has been slightly below 1 in Germany since end of March and that is a consequence of all the measures enacted in March and changes in behavior at a societal level
- reproduction number R has been slightly below 1 in Germany since end of March and that is a consequence of all the measures enacted in March and changes in behavior at a societal level
- The situation is not stable. Even a small uptick in R will lead to renewed exponential spread of #SARSCoV2. Avoiding that will mean stringent contact restictions.
-Changes in R as a consequence of changing restrictions can only be gauged with 2 to 3 weeks delay
-Changes in R as a consequence of changing restrictions can only be gauged with 2 to 3 weeks delay
-Reaching herd immunity without overwhelming the health care system would take years based on current data. Some restrictions would have to be in place that whole time.
- From the point of view of modeling a two-phase strategy seems sensible: First reducing the number of new infections further until effective contact tracing is possible. Then in a second phase an adaptive strategy (less restrictions) on the basis of low number of new infections.
None of that is big news in itself. But these four institutions getting together to make these points can only be seen as weighing in on the debate here in Germany that @GretchenVogel1 and I outlined in this article. sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/r…
There has been a shift in recent days in the public debate here with some politicians and commentators basically arguing “scientists all disagree anyway, we might as well make up our own minds”. I would read this document as a strong push by German science to present a consensus.
It will be interesting to watch in the coming days how this paper is received here in Germany and how much it ends up influencing the debate.
For those who speak German, full paper is here and well worth a read: mpg.de/14760567/28-04…
Final thought: The strategy presented here has been advocated by several scientists incl. @c_drosten. But focus on individual opinions has allowed politicians to pick any position and say they are “following science". This consensus statement makes that much harder. Smart move.
