Thread by @BryanAlexander

I'm getting more worried about the fall semester.

Here are some reasons why.

Many campuses want to open up again. It's understandable, for a some reasons. But it's going to be hard.

#thread
(1/n)

To begin with, US #HigherEducation enrollment will probably be lower. It'll vary by institution and which scenario they follow (bryanalexander.org/scenarios/earl…), and some may enjoy growth, but overall should tick down compared w/fall 2020.

(2/n)

At the same time, many costs will go up.

Think about what's likely involved in opening up a campus: contact tracing, surveillance, doing perimeter temperature checks, frequent testing (assuming that's possible), and whatever "deep cleaning" means for a school.

(3/n)

So campuses in general may tend to have less revenue (enrollment = tuition = income) and higher budgets.

(4/n)

Some people will refuse to go to freshly reopened campuses.

Think about students (and parents of traditional-age ones) for whom safety is a big concern. Will campuses convince *all* of them that the grounds and, more, the community won't infect them?

(5/n)

Think, too, about faculty and staff who fear getting ill on campus.
Especially if they're older and/or have COVID-19-relevant health problems (hypertension etc).
How many faculty, librarians, admin, custodians will refuse to risk their lives and those around them?

(6/n)

Like I said this morning. @ColleenFlahert1 's @insidehighered piece on faculty refusing to set foot on grounds is a good one.

insidehighered.com/news/2020/05/0…

(7/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Let's assume some faction of campus communities will insist on working/studying remotely.

If a campus agrees to this (not all will for all jobs), there are extra costs for making it work: financial, reputational, in terms of governance, etc.

(8/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered If that's right, then we should expect fall 2020 classes to be dual purpose, prepped for both online and in-person modes.
Including both being done at the same time.

(When a campus has fewer resources and more pressure.)

(9/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered That's all about prep.

Once the semester gets going, what happens when an infection occurs on campus?

How many people (students, faculty, staff) will flee?

Will the campus quarantine individuals, or send everyone home again, a la March 2020?

(10/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Again, costs will go up.
Financial and reputational costs.

Does a campus administration face no-confidence votes, student protests for failing to keep them free of #Coronavirus ?

(11/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered As fall 2020 continues, let's anticipate student perceptions.
How many will feel that this online/toggled experience is substandard, and will request (or sue for) tuition cuts?
How many politicians, governments, foundations, public figures will join them?

(12/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Will academics and academia-adjacent people increase that negative perception?

A good number of faculty, staff, and others think online edu is inferior to in-person and will say so, publicly and privately, at length.

When will admins tell them to cool it?
(13/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered The spectacle of students disliking fall 2020 education, criticism of same appearing, lawsuits and protests against tuition and fees - how can that not further depress enrollment?

Which, in turn, hits budgets?

(14/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered We could imagine fall semester campuses that feel like military-medical encampments, with pervasive testing, security patrols, plexiglas shields in all kinds of places, sporadic quarantines, people physically separating from each other.

Doesn't sound like a happy place.

(15/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Classrooms, libraries, and other buildings could have various measures to separate people.

I wouldn't be surprised to see temporary buildings (trailers, tents) in place. Social distancing markers on sidewalks. Barriers in spectator sports areas.

(16/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Add to this heightened social and cultural tensions (if not mania) around the November elections.

(17/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered I wonder about the cultural politics of this.
Who will get shamed for not wanting to be on campus? Will remote study/work become wimpy, unmanly, too intellectual, unpatriotic, unsupportive of a college or university or fraternity or profession in its time of trial?

(18/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Then look ahead. What kind of spring 2021 semester does this kind of fall 2020 generate?

(19/n)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered Thanks to @Durff for egging me on and @edwebb for helping.

/end

(20/20)

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered @Durff @edwebb It's going to get even harder to make the case for opening classes this fall if the pandemic gets worse over the next few months.

Here's from that leaked FEMA/HHS report:

@ColleenFlahert1 @insidehighered @Durff @edwebb How many campuses will own this and accept reduced enrollment?