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Since #German mil twitter lately is going nuts about #Tornado-replacement, including SPD-folks of all people advocating F-35 suddenly again instead of Super Hornet, let me present a clear cut solution to this issue based on military requirements, not politics. Thread.
Luftwaffe needs to replace a force of 90ish Tornado. That replacement should be 1:1, no if's no but's no coconuts. Replacement needs to cover strike, SEAD and nuclear sharing. Notably Luftwaffe wants to maintain two separate models for fleet resilience.
We have in the past seen various proposals for addressing issue. Pure Eurofighter fleet by industry & SPD folks. Goes against Luftwaffe demand re resilience. Also no SEAD/EA role readily available. EA version in particular faces some integration issues (because CFTs are a no-no).
A mixed Eurofighter/F-35 fleet. This was the wish of the former Luftwaffe chief who got sacked for unwisely voicing preference. Personally I am skeptical whether 1:1 replacement with F-35 is desirable. Long term maintenance costs are unknown, as is ALIS, as are other deficits.
What else is there? F-15 is one solution. Very capable strike platform. Arguably more so than Eurofighter. Modern radar, weapons etc. Also certified for B61. But, and a big BUT: No EA/SEAD solution readily available. Extra development at extra cost.
Leading us to Super Hornet. Not yet certified for B61, though realistically it will face fewer issues than Typhoon. An EA/SEAD version readily available with Growler. Strike very capable through E/F version setups. Yes, its not cheap either, yes its optimised for CATOBAR.
But, and that's a big BUT again: It does tick most of the boxes. Its modern (as modern as Typhoon, more modern in some aspects). There are some integration costs for weapons Luftwaffe uses. Same as Typhoon it can only use B61 Mod 12 in gravity non guided mode.
Personally I am more concerned about strike and EA capability than nuclear sharing. Hence in my view the solution is this: Buy 90 F/A-18, split between 30 Growlers, and 60 E/F for strike and nuclear sharing. On top of that budget for SEAD capability on Typhoon.
Result of this will be that Luftwaffe has very robust EA/SEAD capability. Industry will have an easier time realising SEAD on Typhoon vs problematic EA. Due to replacing Trance 1 with Tranche 4 Typhoon they do make money anyway. Fully commit to FCAS with France.
There is no perfect solution. Every variant has pro's & con's. Key aspect is credible defence ain't a bargain, Germany needs to reaffirm commitment both to transatlantic alliance & its ties to France. As long as we pretend it's one or the other, we are fooling ourselves. /end
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