Thread by @pmdfoster

So. It's clear that govt is spoiling for a shake up of 18+ education (both Universities and FE colleges) post #Coronavirus - and perhaps catalysed by #Coronavirus bailouts - but what might that look like? And will Govt see it through? My latest. 1/Thread

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First, the Whitehall smoke signals. After wrangling with DfE, this week @hmtreasury agreed a 'stabilisation' package for universities that was, per one Uni Chancellor "the bare minimum". Another called it plain "mean". Short term cashflow but nothing to undergird system /2

@hmtreasury So £2.6bn in advance on tuition fees - but split across three terms "50/0/50" to avoid crossing budget years - and at the same time making very clear in the 'small print' that any institutions being bailed out will face conditions/restructuring /3

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@hmtreasury The point is that Govt is doing the bare minimum here to stop institutions falling over - and nothing (like agreeing to @UniversitiesUK ask for £2bn advance on research funding) that would cement the existing structure of the sector. The intent is clear as @Hallam_VC tells me. /4

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC So what might 'resturcturing' look like? What does the government want to do - but more, pertinently, what will the government be ABLE to do, given that UK higher education is a marketplace created by previous Tory policies. Govt doesn't have a completely free hand. /5

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC The Govt clearly feels sector is bloated:

- only 45p/£ of student loans to be repaid
- some 34% graduates in non-grad jobs
- VC salaries too high
- too may "low quality" courses that Tory manifesto vowed to tackle
- greater need for adult learning/education linked to jobs /6

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC There is also political animus here among the more 'Vote Leave' elements that see Unis as bastions of Remain, weak on free speech, failing to serve communities... you get a flavour in this pretty bilious @Policy_Exchange (Tory favourite) report /7

policyexchange.org.uk/publication/un…

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange What we are seeing broadly is an ideological shift away from the 'expansionist' approach of previous uni ministers like Jo Johnson and David Willetts (see his piece here) and the new guard who don't buy the need for ever-more graduates /8

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@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange In the van of the new guard is Alison Wolf - who say on last year's Augur Review into 18+ education and is a long-time proponent Further Education/technical training and opponent of the "open-ended support for" 3-year BA degrees. See this report. /9

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@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange Instead Wolf favours more FE, some kind of price-incentives to get students to study high quality/high value courses and the idea of a 'lifelong learning' allowance to get more over 30s into doing courses that advance careers /10

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange That would be a reversal after a decade when over 30s education fallen by 42% and the emphasis has been on expanding Universities which have proved a great export - tho now suddenly vulnerable to a #COVID19 downturn as international students don't show. /11

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange It's an ideological/intellectual u-turn that rejects the idea that progress & productivity is "skills biased" and that UK's future relies on ever-growing numbers of graduates & the knowledge-economy. And if in the age of the 4th industrial revolution that axiom holds? /12

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange So much for the ideology, but what about the practicalities?

The govt doesn't want to hit the high end (the research bits that are finding #COVID19 vaccine and are beloved of Dom Cummings) but ultimately to trim the 'fat' and refocus the sector towards jobs education. /13

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange This is where it gets interesting/difficult and will be a major test of the current government's political will to intervene in the marketplace that has been created since 2012 to try and reshape the system in the image outlined above - since real change will create losers /14

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange Does the government - when the #Coronavirus pinch comes - really have the appetite to close/merge campuses, particularly in those areas that might fall in the Tory battlegrounds?

Mergers are difficult and distracting, as David Bell of @sunderlanduni says/15

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni The market is also key. Unis with higher rankings (that attract more 'customers') don't want to be 'saddled' with weaker institutions beneath them.

And unless the FE 'offer' is really improved, students seem to want to do a 3-year degree. And they are 84% satisfied. /16

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni So while some advising govt believe that there are loads of angry students out there being 'sold lies' by universities and desperate to a better-value HE course...that data suggests otherwise.

Of course that cd change if the focus of UK system wasn't so much on 3yr BAs /17

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni Money is being pumped into FE colleges (£1.8bn into estates and a chunk of £2.5bn skills fund) but the Q is whether - as Blackpool FE college boss & Augur panellist Bev Robinson moots - attitudes to FE really can change? Will middle classes ever buy it? /18

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni It is also true that as David Bell @sunderlanduni says, many universities are already re-orienating towards more vocational type course, with deeper links to local employers/sharper eye on returns/employment rates for degrees. Will 'change' just mean more of this? /19

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni OR is the government *really* prepared to put its finger in the balance?

- Price competition?
- Entry grade thresholds?
- Course subsidies?
- Number caps for some courses?
- Unis paying back for courses that don't produce ROI? /20

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni If not then as Greg Walker @millionplusCEO tells me, the governments over ambitions may well not come to very much. It will require an appetite for a fight - with unis, with middle classes, with opposition who'll see this approach as regressive & reductionist /21

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni @millionplusCEO One final point may be that demographics ultimately resolve the political tension - as from 2022-2034 a big 'bulge' of kids hit 18+. So HE could remain static, FE expand - that said, relatively that may mean less 18yos being able to go to Uni. Politically, that's divisive /22

@hmtreasury @UniversitiesUK @Hallam_VC @Policy_Exchange @sunderlanduni @millionplusCEO In summary: the ambition for change seems to be there, in this new government. #Coronavirus may provide catalyst and leverage for change; but it won't be as fast or easy as some think.

Watch this space - will be fascinating to see how it plays over this Parliament. ENDS