Thread by @AliHMokdad

Our new @IHME_UW updated death projections total 137,184 cumulative #COVID19 deaths (estimate range of 102,783 to 223,489) through the beginning of August. Please follow for analysis. 1/12
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

This increase is explained primarily by people’s movements, as captured in anonymous mobility data from cell phones. 2/12
healthdata.org/covid/updates

Our estimates show that, over the last few weeks, five states – Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Georgia – have seen at least a 20 percentage point increase in mobility patterns. 3/12

In addition, 13 states have experienced between a 15 and 20 percentage point increase: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. 4/12

While at least some of these patterns may be related to formal easing of social distancing policies, this upward trend in movement began in several places long before state-level mandates were relaxed. 5/12

This will lead to higher infections unless states can introduce accelerated testing, contact tracing, and isolation of people who test positive. We also need a widespread use of masks in public and to practice safe distancing. 6/12 fastcompany.com/90501603/masks…

Despite our nation’s eagerness to move past the pandemic, the history of the virus remains to be written in our country. Some states will fare much better than others, not only in terms of lives lost, but also in terms of the economic toll. 7/12

Whatever decisions state leaders make when weighing the costs and benefits of physical distancing, it is crucial for them to be aware of both the spread of the virus and factors that could speed or reduce its spread. 8/12

For states facing challenges ramping up testing to keep pace with infections, it is urgently important to find ways to overcome these challenges. Also essential to monitor changes in mobility to consider what interventions may be needed to control rapid disease transmission. 9/12

The goal is to avoid mass casualties and overwhelmed hospitals. While many states’ decisions to reopen so soon will make it harder to control #COVID19 in the U.S., I hope that @IHME_UW forecasts can help policymakers keep their states as healthy as possible. 10/12

#COVID19 has shown all of us the importance of investing in public health, education, and research to secure the prosperity and development of our country. 11/12 publichealthfunding.org/blog/2020/4/21…

As we begin work on recovery, a comprehensive approach to #populationhealth is critical. All our actions should have health, education, and social and economic equity as key considerations to ensure that we do not leave anyone behind. 12/12 washington.edu/populationheal…