All assault claims must be heard, and we must not start with disbelief or victim blaming.

BUT without witnesses or physical evidence, we consider credibility, biases, motives, and patterns.

WARNING: if you’re fiercely pro- OR anti-Biden, you won't like parts of this THREAD!
This is a LONG thread (unrolled versions at the end).

Claims and corroboration considered below.

Credibility, motive, bias, patterns, and making a judgment are on a separate thread:

Whatever your belief on the matter, you should listen to Ms. Reade’s claim of sexual assault that allegedly occurred in 1993. If you are unwilling, you're not giving her claim fair consideration, just like those who refuse to test her credibility.

soundcloud.com/katie-halper/j…
Proceeding chronologically: in 2009, said she arrived in DC via plane; in 2019 said she drove. In 2020 interview with Sanders supporter Krystal Ball, said she made two trips. Could be that's what happened, that she just misremembered, or conflated the two memories. ImageImage
2009 claim from Medium article, which she has since deleted.

2019 claim from Medium article in which she first claimed harassment by Biden:

medium.com/@AlexandraTara…

Krystal Ball interview:

youtube.com/watch?v=ZmVUQ7…
Note: if the alleged assault occurred, trauma could cause memory issues, leading to fragmented, non-linear, and/or incomplete recollections like these (link). But it does not give "carte blanche" on all such issues, let alone contradictory accounts and/or possible falsehoods.
More on assault-induced trauma and memory here:

time.com/3625414/rape-t…
First public claim of inappropriate touching in 2019 in CA paper, The Nevada Union, in 2019. Says Biden touched her neck, making her uncomfortable, but says didn’t feel sexualized, but like a pretty lamp. In 2019 Medium article, said story "not a story about sexual misconduct." ImageImageImage
Nevada Union article:

theunion.com/news/nevada-co…
Also approached Time’s Up for assistance. They referred her to several lawyer, but all declined. Those who spoke to press confirm her claim to Vox that she wasn’t suing Biden for harassment or assault, but to stop accusations of being Russian agent (confirmed by Reade to Salon). Image
Salon article here:

salon.com/2020/03/31/a-w…
Time’s Up didn’t offer to pay for her legal counsel, noting it could harm their non-profit status. Some Sanders supporters falsely claimed they were protecting Biden because campaign staffer Anita Dunn's connection to them. NYT debunks: Image
First public claim of sexual assault in Halper interview (3/24/20), saying it occurred in a semi-private area in basement of Senate. This contradicts 2019 statement to AP she “wasn’t scared of him, that he was going to take me in a room or anything. It wasn’t that kind of vibe.” Image
Consciousness of contradiction: the same day Halper interview published, Medium story changed in several ways, most notably “not about sexual misconduct” changed to “this is not *only* a story about sexual misconduct.” Reade is only person who would be able to make these changes. Image
Full report on changes available here:

romansresearch.wordpress.com/2020/04/29/tar…
"Gym bag" claim problematic: offices on 2nd fl, gym 3rd, and basement highly trafficked when Senate in session, especially w/congress members, staff, and press coming and going from Congress's rail stop. In '93, only semi-private area shared wall w/Capitol Police station.
Reade later claimed to Megyn Kelly it happened on first floor, but that is an area that is even more highly trafficked, and does not have any areas that would not be visible to those passing by.

Kelly interview available here, via her YouTube channel:

youtube.com/watch?v=5HeZiK…
In Halper interview, claimed not to be wearing hosiery on day of alleged assault. Many (including @CheriJacobus) note wearing hosiery at all times was a regular part of professional dress code in DC at the time, to the point that an article on it was published in 1993 ("WaPo 1").
Claims wasn’t wearing hosiery b/c too warm. Reade alleges incident in March or April, but it didn’t reach 70 in March, Congress in session only April 8-18, high of 77 on 4/15, and 79 on 4/16. Overnight lows of 46 and 39, respectively, so likely in mid-50s when leaving for work.
Weather records searchable here:

almanac.com/weather

Congressional session dates for 1993 given here:

history.house.gov/Institution/Se…
To Kelly, Reade changed story from wearing panties that Biden allegedly reached under) to claiming she was wearing crotchless panties, anticipating sex with her boyfriend. Needless to say, this would be a significant violation of any Congressional dress code.
In 2020, claims she filed a report (later an intake form) of misconduct w/Senate staff office, but no mention of assault or harassment--per Vox, no record found. Biden asked Secretary of Senate release it (or any other sexual misconduct records), but law prohibits its release. ImageImageImageImage
NBC article here:

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Secretary of Senate says if she had, rules required her to receive counseling first. Said in 2019 she “chickened out,” making it highly unlikely any report was submitted. Also, a filed report would’ve required an official hearing, but again, no record of it (per WaPo 2). ImageImageImage
NBC on response from Secretary of Senate:

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…

“Chickened out”: apnews.com/aec7beb03e9e0e…

“Hearing” from “WaPo 2”: washingtonpost.com/politics/devel…
In 2019, a reporter from Vox helped Reade find an employment document with dates of employment and pay (pic from Reade). They tried to find the complaint file at the Office of Personnel Management and a county records warehouse, but no such record was found. ImageImage
Conspiracy theorists have suggested Biden and/or his staff may have secretly removed the file. Here’s a thread by @STEMthebleeding on how it would be nearly impossible for them to do so undetected.

In interview w/Ball, says didn’t claim assault in 2008 to help Obama, but she could've come forward in June when VP discussions began in media outlets, well before his selection on 8/23/08. Also, head of Obama vetting team says they found nothing like this at the time. Image
LA Times article from June 2008 on veepstakes (Biden gets his own paragraph):

latimes.com/archives/la-xp…
In 2020 claims to Salon she tried to tell assault story to 2019 interviewer from Union, but interviewer “shut [her] down." Possible, but unlikely, since declining a sensational story means less readers/money, and readership not likely pro-Biden (Bernie won the county by 13%). ImageImage
Recently, reporter from Vox who interviewed her in 2019 firmly states she didn’t try to shut her down, even if her claim was assault; instead notes she’d be happy for the scoop, if she could verify it. In response, Reade claims she was speaking of journalists “collectively.” Image
On 4/9/20, Reade filed a police report claiming assault in 1993, but doesn’t name Biden, or any of the corroborators. This is noteworthy, since it would make her legally vulnerable if her story on Biden is later found to be false. Investigation briefly active, now inactive. ImageImage
NPR claims she did name Biden, citing “confirmation” from an unnamed “law enforcement source” (they’ve filed a FOIA request). No other outlet claims such confirmation, but if the document surfaces, I will include it here.

npr.org/2020/04/19/837… Image
Also in 2020, filed report claiming harassment from people on social media accusing her of being a Russian agent. I haven’t seen details, but to be a crime, it would have to be more than simply saying or suggesting it, but rather targeted harassment.
She has recently hired two lawyers, though she has not filed any suits. One is a strong Trump supporter who contributed $55K to his 2016 campaign, the other is a former writer for one of Putin’s propaganda outlets, Sputnik.

apnews.com/10d2842623b2c2…
Corroborations:

NYT interviewed staff/aides in Biden’s office at the time: none recall hearing about the alleged incident or her complaint, but two aides do remember her losing supervisory role around that time. ImageImage
Says she told mother of assault in 1993. Mother dead, but person from same CA town called Larry King’s show about “cutthroat nature of Washington DC," saying her daughter had "problems" while working for DC Senator. Timing lines up, but no mention of harassment or assault. Image
Larry King video available here:

youtube.com/watch?v=aivzae…
Some Sanders supporters falsely claimed CNN removed the interview to protect Biden. The video is not publicly available; it is listed on a Google Play playlist (not available for play), and the video containing the phone call was mislabeled.

snopes.com/fact-check/cnn…
Brother says she told him of assault in 1993, but didn’t mention it in initial interviews w/ABC and WaPo, telling ABC in 2020 he "only heard her account of the assault.” Sent “clarifying” texts after speaking w/Sanders supporter Nathan Robinson. ImageImageImage
ABC News: abcnews.go.com/Politics/women…

Quote from WaPo 2
In a 1996 transcript of court proceedings from ex-husband's contesting of Reade's restraining order, he testifies she complained of sexual harassment while working in Biden’s office, but doesn’t mention assault, or name Biden as harasser. More on this below. Image
Transcript available here:

sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-…
Lorraine Sanchez, a colleague of Reade’s in the CA legislator’s office where she worked at after job in Biden’s office says Reade told her of sexual harassment and firing in mid-90s, but Sanchez doesn’t mention assault. Image
Reade’s former neighbor in CA, Lynda LaCasse, says Reade told her assault story in 1995. According to LaCasse, she remembered assault story in 2020 after speaking w/Reade her privately; spoke w/her about "touching" story in 2019. LaCasse later said Biden’s denial “believable.” ImageImage
Sanchez/LaCasse claims:

businessinsider.com/former-neighbo…

Reporter claims LaCasse social media included favorable statements on Biden and Sanders, but Twitter and Facebook wiped clean of any such references.

LaCasse’s “believable”: democracynow.org/2020/5/1/lynda…
With one exception, all others Reade referred to news outlets for corroboration recall only general claims about harassment, but not assault, or don't recall anything at all, per NBC. Image
NBC article available here:

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Exception is friend who says Reade told her assault story in mid-90s, but only anonymously, so credibility can’t be tested (quote from NYT). In summary, it is clear Reade was telling “touching” story in mid-90s, but confirmations of assault story being told all have an asterisk. Image
Reporter from Vox 1 spoke to anonymous friend (not clear if it's same anonymous friend) who in 2019 told her only the “touching” story, but when re-interviewed in 2020, told assault story. When asked why, friend says the story from Reade “just organically rolled out that way.” Image
Unlike Christine Blasey-Ford, Reade declined to share therapist notes from the mid-90s (per WaPo 2), which is significant, as it would provide account from a neutral party, as opposed to family or friends. She also declined a suggestion from Megyn Kelly to take a polygraph test. Image
Some have suggested that social mores of the early 1990s would’ve trivialized such a claim, but this is false. Fed law passed 1980, affirmed 9-0 by SCOTUS in 1986, and harassment was prominently in news cycle in 1993, not least because of Sen. Bob Packwood’s scandal. Image
Note: telling story at the time doesn't prove alleged accusation. A woman recently claimed Biden commented on her breasts when she was 14. Six people said on record that she told them at the time. But Biden wasn’t there, as verified by event host and extensive documentation. Image
Leaving Biden's office:

In 2009 Medium article, said she left to follow spouse to new job, didn’t mention assault. Possibly because it didn’t happen, or in/voluntarily choice to avoid trauma of memory. Not in politics in 2009, so not likely protecting professional prospects. Image
In 2018 Medium article (also since deleted), says she “resigned” to pursue various career opportunities, and that she wanted to leave DC because she “saw the reckless imperialism of America,” further noting, “I love Russia with all my heart.”

(More on Russia in motive thread) Image
Deleted stories available on Web Archive:

archive.is/OeD6Z

archive.is/Vi7Hf

archive.is/UFB1e
Full contradiction in 2019 saying she was "forced out" for refusing to serve drinks at a party (heard it was at Biden’s request). Blamed staff: “It’s not him,” and “did not even know if he realized why I left" (which doesn't jibe w/ex-husband's claim she "struck a deal" w/staff). ImageImage
Pic 1 from her Medium article

Pic 2 from Nevada Union

Pic 3 from Washington Post (“WaPo 1”):

washingtonpost.com/politics/forme…
David Wheeler, who arranged 100s of such political parties, on drinks story: if official gov't function, union rules prohibited her from serving, and liability would be a concern for any caterer at a private event. Possibility of a U.S. Senator not using pro caterer very low.
Again contradicts herself by claiming on firing in 2020 that Biden himself “fired” her, earlier claim she wasn't even sure "if he realized why I left." ImageImage
Aforementioned employment document shows her salary decreased twice in February (likely related to loss of supervisory duties). This is before the earliest time she's suggested alleged assault happened, which means it could not be in retaliation for speaking out. Image
Two days before leaving Biden office's employ, Reade charged with *knowingly* (see statute) passing bad checks. No direct evidence it impacted her termination, and Reade's lawyer claims she'd left office in July, with termination date referring to end of salary payments. ImageImage
Record now expunged, so we don’t know final disposition of the case. Reade’s lawyer claims she paid fine, and case dismissed. Possible, but also possible it was pled down to lesser charge with fine and no jail time. Image
This could be impetus for "deal" struck w/Biden staff, and confirms her "need for money" (per ex-husband). This could also be “problem” mother mentions in 1993 to Larry King, as financial troubles are considered security risk for gov’t employees, possibly leading to termination.
Summary: some details vary, some different versions, some contradictory. This weighs heavily on credibility, which is the factor on which we judge the veracity of her claim. This, along w/Biden's behavioral patterns, considered in next thread:

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More from @NoTeamsIndy

Nov 1, 2020
Final Biden v. Trump UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.0/Clinton +5.2
EC: Biden 279-121 (+178)/Clinton 223-179 (+43)

Biden 50%+ w/lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in ELEVEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD on polling, early vote, exit polls, and my GUESS at the outcome
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV), otherwise Registered Voter (RV)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. No partisan polls

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. The maps above are NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. My GUESS is given at the end of the thread.
Read 48 tweets
Oct 23, 2020
Biden v. Trump 10/23 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.9/Clinton +7.1
EC: Biden 279-124 (+155)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in ELEVEN battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

PLUS Biden lead greater than undecideds + 3rd party in TEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD...
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest guesses at election outcome on 11/1, and probably with caveats.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 15, 2020
Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2
EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD... ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.
Read 41 tweets
Oct 1, 2020
@JoeBiden v. Trump 10/1 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +7.9 / Clinton +3.0
Electoral College votes: Biden 279-124 (+155) / Clinton 217-187 (+30)

Biden 50%+ in EIGHT battlegrounds, 49%+ in TWELVE
ZERO for Clinton; highest 44.3%, ≤42% in 15

>1%+ change since 9/15:
9 --> Biden
2 --> Trump ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Battleground polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This thread is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.
Read 41 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
MINI-THREAD on polls:

Not that were's approaching the final 30 days, polls are gonna start coming fast and furious. PLEASE remember, it is the *averages* that matter, so don't freak out when you see 1-2 polls that show an undesirable result.

For example...
Today, Siena released a poll that shows Biden +3 in IA, while YouGov released a WI poll with Biden +4.

Demographics alone tell us those two numbers cannot both be accurate, but if you feed them into the averages, you'll get a better picture. ImageImage
Also, watch for first-time pollsters: yesterday's freak out was on the ABC/WaPo and Ipsos polls, but turns out neither had polled those states before, so we have no idea what the trendlines are, or what numbers their model tends to create in respect to the averages. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/22 UPDATE

Biden +7.4 / Clinton +1.6
EC: Biden 284-124 (+160) / Clinton 222-181 (+41)

Biden 50%+ in 7 battlegrounds, 49%+ in 11
0 for Clinton; highest 44.4%, ≥41% in 10/18

Since 9/15: 9 of 18 -> Biden (largest ME: 5.7); 6 even; 3 -> Trump (largest OH, 0.9) ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST. Also, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions. They're *probability reports (538's largely matched Team Trump's at ~30%). ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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