Thread by @NoTeamsIndy

Biden v. Trump 10/23 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.9/Clinton +7.1
EC: Biden 279-124 (+155)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in ELEVEN battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

PLUS Biden lead greater than undecideds + 3rd party in TEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD...

NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest guesses at election outcome on 11/1, and probably with caveats.

3. And FYI, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions* They're probability reports, and 538's largely matched Team Trump's ~30%. Think of them like the hurricane path charts that show all possibilities, and indicating which ones are more likely.

CONTEXT for 10/23:

2016: 17 days to election
2020: 11 days to election

2016: final debate 10/19
2020: final debate 10/22

CONTEXT:

10/7/16: Access Hollywood tape ("grab them by the p*ssy"). ~90 minutes later, Clinton campaign emails released via coordination b/t Trump campaign, Russia, and Wikileaks (pics)

2020:

10/2-5: Trump CoVid diagnosis, hospital
10/14: Russian disinfo published in NY Post

A1. (Scientific) Polls on final debate show Biden won handily, and for Trump, anything other than an outright victory is a big loss. As always, the very small number of remaining undecideds means it won’t likely move numbers significantly (CNN poll suggests 0.5% gain for Biden).

A2. Some 2020 battleground *margins* similar to 2016, but Biden in much stronger position: 273 EV from states w/5%+ lead and average 50%+ (279 w/49%+). In these battlegrounds, Trump needs over 100% of late deciders, big turnout, AND to *convert* Biden supporters!

But in 2016...

A2b. On 10/23/16, ALL battlegrounds (margin ≤10%) had double-digit und/3rd, ZERO double-digit und/3rd on 10/23/20

In 2016, Trump needed 26-52% of und/3rd to take leads in "Clinton battlegrounds"

In 2020, Trump needs 81-265% of them to take leads in "Biden battlegrounds"

A2b. By Election Day 2016, Trump had gotten 56, 61, and 58% of undecideds + 3rd party supporters to flip MI, PA, WI

By Election Day 2020, Trump will need 127, 132, and 156%(!!!) of undecideds + 3rd party supporters to flip MI, PA, WI

A2c. ZERO battlegrounds lean Trump in 2020, THREE did in 2016

Biden has 10%+ lead in SIX battlegrounds, for Clinton only ONE

ALL BUT ONE 2020 tossup went red in 2016, and Biden’s margin is stronger than Clinton’s in EVERY ONE of these battlegrounds

A3. Also, in 2020 several pollsters started "weighting for education" by including more non-college voters, based on 2016 turnout. We’ll see if that turnout repeats in 2020, but it benefits Trump ~3%. So by 2016 practices, Biden would be as much as +12.9% nat'l, with 335 EC votes

Here’s a deep dive into polling crosstabs from 9/15-10/14 (next deep dive on 11/1), showing why Biden’s leading, early voting (more on this below), enthusiasm, and as always, way too many other reasons why 2020 is so very different from 2016:

https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1316728554047053824

B1. Early voting: numbers favor Dems, but they did in 2016 too, and polls indicate most GOP plan to vote on Election Day. Also, early voters are usually partisans, not swing voters, who break later (again, see 2016). In short, these numbers are no guarantee of the final outcome.

B3a. For example, Clinton had a 90,000 early voting lead in FL on Election Day, but Trump won the state by 107,000 votes. As we see in the numbers, the gap between Biden and Trump voters on early vs. election day is very wide in 2020.

politico.com/states/florida…

But even if turnout sustains Biden’s leads, polling can CHANGE. Clinton dropped 5-7% from 10/23/16 to Election Day (esp after Comey letter), costing her leads in states worth 69 electoral votes:

So check your registration, make your voting plan at IWillVote.com, and VOTE!!!