Thread by @39Magilla

(1) I'm not convinced @NYGovCuomo understands the problem introduced by long feedback delays.

For the next five (5) to ten (10) days, conditions will improve in New York, regardless of what action occurs today.

(2) The best inferential indicator will be the Mobility index, which has very little feedback delay. @NYGovCuomo should have a target increase and target this level of increased activity for Phase 2.

(3) The @Kinsa Fever Map may be useful for spotting an upturn in virus infection rates, but it will lag the change by the Incubation period of five (5) days. @NYGovCuomo should watch this carefully.

Right now this tool is not showing much.

(4) Waiting for an increase in Cases or in Hospitalization rates could be a huge mistake.

For the last 14 days, New York has been locked down tight, and these variables will continue to drop as a result. By the time they upturn in the third week, "the damage is done".

(5) To control the response @NYGov should monitor the leading inferential variables, not the variables that suffer w/long deadtimes.

If either the Mobility index or the @Kinsa map show a significant up turn, take action then before three weeks of bad behavior are on the books.

(6) Help spread the word to @NYGovCuomo!

Credits:
@DescartesLabs
@IHME_UW
@Kinsa
@nytimes