(1) Could #COVID19 mutant #D614G the variation seen in Transmission Rates (Rt's) and Case Fatality Rates (CFR's) between locations?
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
#BreakingNews #coronavirus
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
#BreakingNews #coronavirus
(2) A group of researchers prepublished their findings about the #D614G mutation to the SARS-Cov-2 affecting the properties of the Spike protein that binds to host cell sites.
(3) The paper includes a diagram showing the emergence of the #D614G mutant and its descendants, first in Belgium, and later in hot spots in Europe and the United States.
The relative quantities of the this mutant strain could explain the variations seen in Case Fatality Rates!
The relative quantities of the this mutant strain could explain the variations seen in Case Fatality Rates!
(5) The evidence is clear that G614 and its descendants have become the dominant strain, but data from Sheffield suggests that the G614 strain is also leading to more fatalities, with 20 of their 23 ICU patients suffering from the mutant strain.
(6) In Europe, the paper suggests that Germany doesn't have a magic formula, they were simply lucky to have most of their early infections come from the milder strain.
Similarly, the researchers suggest that Washington and California were lucky; New York was not.
Similarly, the researchers suggest that Washington and California were lucky; New York was not.
(7) The paper also provides results for Asia, Australia and Africa, telling a similar story.
(8) This could be a big piece of the puzzle regarding variations in outcomes between locations.
I first suspected this on April 22nd.
I first suspected this on April 22nd.
(9) @LosAlamosNatLab developed this visualization to understand the relative abundance of the two key #COVID19 mutant strains.
cov.lanl.gov/apps/covid-19/…
cov.lanl.gov/apps/covid-19/…
(10) Here is a similar map for my friends in Europe.
(12) On April 8th (left) the D614 West Coast strain was dominant in the United States. By April 29th, the G614 New England Strain had become the dominant by spreading faster.
(13) I found a better sequence of frames showing the emergence of G614 in the research report.
(13) Before March 1st, all the #COVID19 cases in the State of New York were D614. As the G614 strain arrived in March, the dramatic outbreak began.
(14) In the State of Washington, the first outbreak was the D614 strain, which was controlled by social distancing, but during the declining stage the G614 strain arrived and is now the dominant strain there.
(15) The D614 to G614 ratio also explains the differences in Deaths Rates per 1 M residents in Europe.
First, Europe as a whole had a blend of the two strains, and as a whole its death rates were more than Germany's, but less than Italy's, England's and the Netherlands.
First, Europe as a whole had a blend of the two strains, and as a whole its death rates were more than Germany's, but less than Italy's, England's and the Netherlands.
(16) Second, in Italy the entire outbreak was the G614 strain, so Italy had the fastest spread and equaled the highest Deaths per 1M rates of the group.
(17) Third, in England teh G614 strain was dominate, so the Death Rates were comparable to Italy's, as were the recovery rates.
(18) Fourth, in the Netherlands, the ratio of the two viruses was about 50/50 during the outbreak, but G614 dominated after the lockdown. The initial rates were about half that of Italy and England, but the recovery rate was very similar.
(19) Finally, in Germany the initial outbreak was entirely D614. It grew slower and peaked at a value 5-6X lower than Italy & England did.
However, during the lockdown the G614 strain replaced D614 slowing the recovery & increasing the risk of a new outbreak during reopening.
However, during the lockdown the G614 strain replaced D614 slowing the recovery & increasing the risk of a new outbreak during reopening.
(20) The discovery that the #coronavirus has already had a significant mutation is mystifying.
The virus genome has over 29,000 tRNA nucleotides, and there have been less than 30 nucleotide mutations. One of them improved the binding behavior of the Spike Protein, amazing!
The virus genome has over 29,000 tRNA nucleotides, and there have been less than 30 nucleotide mutations. One of them improved the binding behavior of the Spike Protein, amazing!
(22) The bottom line from Trevor's (@trvrb) thread is that this hypothesis looks very interesting and has explanatory power, but there's too little evidence and it's far too early to reach a conclusion at this time.
(23) The Los Alamos National Laboratory Fellow Bette Korber, who leads the research team is extremely credible, though.
(24) Here's a reference to help you understand where the D614G mutation occurred if your looking for it on nextstrain.org.
(26) Here's a zoomed view of D614G glade.
