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#Covid19India

The ratio of Recoveries to Deaths is a critical indicator of how well a state may be testing, tracing and isolating. South Korea, for example, rapidly rose to 37x while China holds at 17x.

India is currently at 12x, aggregated.

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#Covid19India : State of the States :: Recoveries/Deaths

AP ~ 26x
BR ~ 58x
DL ~ 27x
***GJ ~ 6x***
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#Covid19India

HR ~ 40x
JK ~ 47x
KA ~ 13x
>>> KL ~ 164x <<<

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#Covid19India

***MP ~ 9x***
***MH ~ 6x***
PB ~ 16x
RJ ~ 22x
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#Covid19India

TN ~ 40x
TG ~ 27x
UP ~ 23x
***WB ~ 5x***
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#Covid19India

This is a reasonably good heuristic for assessing #TestTraceIsolate performance because (pro)active testing allows early detection of cases - which boosts recovery growth (Numerator) while simultaneously minimizing death rates (Denominator).

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#Covid19India

States which're degrading National Level (or Aggregated) Performance are:

> Gujarat
> Madhya Pradesh
> Maharashtra
> West Bengal

Their testing growth rate figures support this judgement.
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#Covid19India #TestTraceIsolate

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G Raghuram
@UntergrundmannG
#Covid19India: Checking in on some of the states whose testing rates had not been good enough or had been facing a strong surge of new cases lately - which may have stressed their testing capacity.

A heuristic to assess if their testing levels are appropriate is the proxy CFR
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#Covid19India

Bihar (1/2): Testing has failed to rise as needed. Positivity is tending upwards to 5%. In the growth rate chart, testing rate is on the decline while the positives rate is diverging and rising.

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#Covid19India

Bihar (2/2): Actives are rising and the levels are much higher than earlier in the series. Recoveries rate and CFR both look good.

Anomalous case because the growth of tests is NOT in accord with the CFR. Something's off here.
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Read 17 tweets
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G Raghuram
@UntergrundmannG
#Covid19India: Status

Infection Count: 4353 New | Total 67161
Deaths: 111 New | 2212 Total
Recoveries: 1668 New | 20969 Total

Daily infection count growth maintains steady exponential growth > 5% per day.
N-Fold growth of Recoveries continues to lag behind that of new cases.
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#Covid19India

Proxies: CFR off resolved cases 🔽 9.54%
Recoveries/Deaths ratio 🔼 9.48
Daily growth of deaths ↔️ 5.5%
Recoveries daily growth rate 🔼 8.3%

Lagged Death Rates at 5.32% in [3.29-7.93%]. All lags ↔️, signalling extended taper.
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#Covid19India

Active Cases add 2574 to rise to 43980 Total. Daily growth 🔼 6.2% with 2-10dMAs in range 5.3-6.0%. Expect the rate to hold between 5-6% for some time. Till Recoveries Accelerate

Total Count daily growth 🔼 6.9% with 2-10dMAs in range 6.0-6.8%.
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Read 4 tweets
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G Raghuram
@UntergrundmannG
#Covid19India: State of the States

Andhra: Containment Status positive. Positivity below 1%. Testing growth rate maintained above that of positives.
#Covid19India

Bihar: Difficult to infer. Contradictory signals. Containment status positive. Positivity widely varying and tilted upwards of 2%. Testing growth below that of positives. Multiple mismatches in positives vs cases confirmed.
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#Covid19India

Delhi Testing data now irregular/delayed. Containment status negative. Testing growth (till last available update) higher than that of positives. Positivity high > 6%
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