1/ Q: My state is #reopening. Yay! Also, yikes! Are we...ready??
A: Short answer: Probably not.
Read on for the longer answer
2/ The White House published "gating criteria" in their Reopening America Again guidelines. These are data-driven criteria that each state/region should satisfy before reopening: such as a 2 week downward trajectory of new cases, adequate hospital capacity, and "robust" testing.
3/ Since the White House criteria did not specify quantitative targets, the non-partisan #COVID Exit Strategy initiative created specific metrics based on the gating criteria. After compiling the needed data for each metric, they give each state a "traffic light" designation:
4/
🔴 Red: Gating criteria not met
🟡 Yellow: Making progress on measures
🟢 Green: Cleared gating criteria.
As of this morning (Monday, May 18), Michigan and New Jersey are green. Yay!
5/ Helpfully, the COVID Exit Strategy also shows the actual reopening status of each state, regardless of gating criteria being met. As of this morning, 13 "criteria not met" (red) states are listed as reopening, and another 6 are listed as partial reopening or reopening soon.
6/
Click the link below to see how your state is doing and familiarize yourself with the six metrics used to track gating criteria. covidexitstrategy.org
7/ Editorial note: This Nerdy Girl noticed the absence of #ContactTracing capability as a gating criterion or metric. This is unfortunate! Reopening is much more likely to be safe and successful if state and local health departments can do contact tracing for any new cases.
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1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).