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It seems fitting that this paper, which addresses the serious uncertainties in #COVID19 modeling, is published in the journal Chaos 😉
aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.106… by @DaviFaranda @LdnMathLab and colleagues
To illustrate the model issues, consider 2 current projections for US fatalities by August 4th
@IHME_UW ~139,000
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
@youyanggu ~195,000
covid19-projections.com
The latter has led accuracy for several weeks
Correction: The graph for @IHME_UW and their projection is ~143,000
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The Pareto principle—80/20 rule—law of the vital few, is quickly getting backing for #SARSCoV2 transmissibility.
3 preprints, using 3 different methods, different patient cohorts, show a small % of infections account for a large proportion of spread.
A table to summarize 👇
Links to these preprints:
International, modeling
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-67
@_akiraendo @adamjkucharski and colleagues
Israel, sequencing
@Daniellemlrs @SternLab
Cluster tracing, Hong Kong
@DillonCAdam @gmleunghku @bencowling88
This @ScienceMagazine summary by @kakape is outstanding for explaining what we know about "overdispersion" (aka super spreader) events tied to settings, individuals, and timing sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/w…
And this ★ thread @SternLab
Read 7 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The Remdesivir placebo-controlled randomized trial data.
We've eagerly awaited the data; now published @NEJM nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
Significant benefit for 27% ⬇️time to recovery, across all subgroups except those on a ventilator/ECMO, death reduced 30% (95% CI 0.47, 1.04; NS)
The section about changing the primary endpoint and informing the NIAID. This seems perfectly above board, well done
The benefit in patients who were not ordinal scale 6/7 (on non-inv or invasive ventilation at baseline) is impressive. Safety issues were less with the drug v placebo
Overall remdesivir is a safe and effective drug for #COVID19 patients with lower respiratory tract involvement.
Read 5 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
A note about the world's worst super-spreader events:
3 of the worst were from churches
South Korea (Feb 9/16) >5,000 cases
France (Feb 17) > 2,500 cases
US (March 10) 53 cases
Here are another >220 cases spread through church events, none as large as the 3 above, from @gmknght's remarkable spreadsheet tally
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
This April church event in Sacramento, California, led to at least 71 cases
capradio.org/articles/2020/…
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