Thread by @EricTopol

The Pareto principle—80/20 rule—law of the vital few, is quickly getting backing for #SARSCoV2 transmissibility.
3 preprints, using 3 different methods, different patient cohorts, show a small % of infections account for a large proportion of spread.
A table to summarize 👇

Links to these preprints:
International, modeling
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-67
@_akiraendo @adamjkucharski and colleagues
Israel, sequencing
@Daniellemlrs @SternLab
Cluster tracing, Hong Kong
@DillonCAdam @gmleunghku @bencowling88

This @ScienceMagazine summary by @kakape is outstanding for explaining what we know about "overdispersion" (aka super spreader) events tied to settings, individuals, and timing sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/w…
And this ★ thread @SternLab

https://twitter.com/SternLab/status/1264084563896254465

Oops. The other links:
2nd (Israel)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
3rd (Hong Kong)
researchsquare.com/article/rs-295…

Knowing the dominant role of overdispersion helps in many ways, such as prevention of high risk settings
Best paper by @gmknght and colleagues wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-83/…

And prioritize contact tracing, as pointed out by @nataliexdean 👇

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1264394137723260929

This @WSJ piece reviews many of the superspreader events/settings and rationale for prevention via modeling
wsj.com/articles/super… by @bopanc
"Most cases globally, and especially most deaths, happened after superspreading events” —@hendrikstreeck @UniBonn
w/input @ProfMSmall

A new white paper by @BMAlthouse and colleagues @IDMOD_ORG
"Transmission...is dominated by a small number of individuals and is driven by super-spreading events"
"Novel methods are needed to quickly predict, identify, or isolate individuals/hotspots..."
covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasti…