Thread by @YagciAlper

Our paper with @cemoyvat is now published with @ElectoralStdies: We studied how #Turkey voters form their assessments of how the economy is going, based on survey data. Access: authors.elsevier.com/a/1b5hPxRaZVwEs
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Our findings testify both to the capacity of the individuals to anchor their economic performance assessments to personal experience, and to the #media's ability to weaken this anchor. 2/n

With an new method we get personal income growth over the previous year and show that this growth predicts more positive assessments. But those watch pro-govt TV have upwardly biased assessments. These results obtain w partisanship is constant, and for opposition voters too. 3/n

One interesting bit: While most respondents thought that the economy was going badly, a plurality thought it would have been even worse with someone other than the incumbent Erdogan in power. And the pro-govt TV seems to have a big effect on this counterfactual assessment. 4/n

Our study aims to contribute to the #economic #vote debate: Positive economic assessments increase the likelihood to vote for the incumbent. But where do positive assessments come from? We're proposing one answer. Hope other studies take forward with more comprehensive data.