Thread by @kakape

Haven’t had a chance to look closely at this preprint about #covid19 in Israel, but interesting to see that their model "indicates that #SARSCoV2 transmission dynamics were driven by an extremely high level of viral superspreading”. Looks like evidence is accumulating.

https://twitter.com/SternLab/status/1264084563896254465

"if we assume almost complete case reporting, our phylodynamic analysis indicates that between 5-9% of infections are responsible for 80% of secondary infections; with lower assumed levels of case reporting, between 1-5% of infections would be responsible for this 80%"

"Our results suggest that superspreading events are a main feature of #SARSCoV2 spread, suggesting that focused measures to reduce contacts of select individuals/social events could dramatically mitigate viral spread."

Not clear to me how much of this result was baked into the assumptions given this section in the methods. Maybe @SternLab @Daniellemlrs can clarify. Also curious what @C_Althaus and others think.
(and - forgot this in first tweet - : h/t @chapnick)