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PROVINCIAL UPDATE 27 MAY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• Update on weekly deaths
• 7 day average of new cases graph

#COVID19 #COVID19inSA
[1/3] Weekly deaths in SA from Natural causes:

Tracking weekly deaths occurring vs the expected average is very important to gauge the impact of the virus.

Looking at SA on a whole, the effects are not really noticeable, but taking a closer look at WC...
[2/3] Weekly deaths from Natural causes:

We can see there's a definite upward trend now occurring in WC. Remember this data is from a week back so the spike will be even higher right now.

And taking an even closer look at the metros...
[3/3] Weekly deaths from Natural causes:

The spikes in Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay are very noticeable. We don't want to see those black lines going too high.

Graphs are from the South African Medical research Council.
Forecast is based on averages from 2018 and 2019.
7 Day rolling ave graph

• Biggest single day increase for KZN... but it was always coming
• Also biggest single day increase for WC and EC
• On the positive side, MP has had a good last week or so
Please note recoveries and deaths from FS are different because I used the info from their latest provincial report which came out not too long ago.
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#COVID19 #COVID19inSA

More from @sugan2503 see all

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sugan naidoo
@sugan2503
PROVINCIAL UPDATE 24 MAY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• New table today on % of deaths from confirmed cases per age category
• Active cases graph

#Covid19 #Covid19SA
[1/2] Table on % of deaths per age category:

In this table I looked at what % of people have died from those that tested positive in each age category.

Approximately:
• 1 in 6 people over 80 have died
• 1 in 8 between 70 - 79 have died
• 1 in 16 between 60 - 69 have died
[2/2] Table on % of deaths per age category:

Getting data for this table has been difficult. As much as I would like to have more up to date numbers, these numbers are only released once a week at best.
I used what was available to try and give people an idea of the % of deaths
Read 5 tweets
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sugan naidoo
@sugan2503
PROVINCIAL UPDATE 22 MAY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• Todays graphs: Total deaths per Province and 7 day average of new cases
• Also a quick look at the lag of test results in WC

#CoronaVirusSA #Covid19inSA
Cumulative deaths per Province (As of 22 May)

• Worrying to see EC following the trend of WC
• KZN and GP deaths have slowed and not much to speak of in other Provinces
7 Day rolling average graph (As of 22 May)

• Not much change from yesterday but there seems to be some confusion when allocating cases in the smaller provinces, numbers have been up and down last few days (just by 1 or 2)
• NW probably had the best week (NC aside)
Read 5 tweets
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sugan naidoo
@sugan250388
PROVINCIAL UPDATE 20 MAY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• 7 day average graph

Today saw the most recoveries recorded in one day (990), and more recoveries than new cases for once.
Media always seem to report the negatives, so just trying to look on the bright side :)
7 Day rolling Ave graph (As of 20 May):

• WC growth rate slowed in the last few days
• KZN and GP meandering along the same path for a while now
• Still too early, I feel, to say if the smaller provinces are experiencing any serious growth
I think there may have been a mix up with the MP and LP totals:

• Yesterday LP had 94 and today 93
• MP hasn't had more than 5 cases in the last 10 days and today there's 15 (seems unlikely)

The provincial reports are showing yesterdays figures so I can't even compare
Read 4 tweets

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