Thread by @pmdfoster

So Sidiq Khan @SadiqKhan has written to @michaelgove
asking him to apply for a #Brexit extension saying forcing issue on Jan 1 2021 is "needless and harzardous"...as @SMFthinktank report says 'no deal' fallout will NOT get lost in #coronavirus /1

ft.com/content/880ba6…

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank The Social Market Foundation Report @SMFthinktank by is here, and per @SamuelMarcLowe at the launch it really challenges this Westminster meme that #coronavirus economic shock so bad it will be 'cover' for a 'no deal' brexit.../2

smf.co.uk/publications/a…

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe He made the (rather disconcerting) analogy of a sick patient who is just about surviving at home, without going to hospital, but doesn't need much to "push him over the edge" (I quote from memory @SamuelMarcLowe) /3

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe The report recaps the pre- #Coronavirus estimates for the cost of doing either a basic FTA or an "Australian style" bellyflop onto WTO-rules.

Those tables still hold the power to make you stop and wonder how British politics backed itself into this hardest/most costly #Brexit/4

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe Instinctively those numbers on services feel on the high side to, given the mitigation steps many professions (like lawyers) have taken; it remains to be seen, given UK proximity to EU, how hard EU countries put up barriers to services. But even so... /5

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe When you look at the combined impact of #coronavirus and a 'no deal' #Brexit it isn't pretty, and it falls hardest on NWest, NEast and Midlands. All of which is why..../6

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe I still struggle to fully buy the UK government's 'no deal' threats...the fact that they are seeking all these mitigations/easements from the EU (the ones @MichelBarnier is refusing until UK moves on level-playing field etc) speaks an acknowledgement they'll be needed. /7

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe @MichelBarnier All that said, it seems there is zero chance now of an official extension in June - which means that if a deal is done in October (not impossible in my view) there will have to be some kind of phasing in period or business will have no time to adjust. /8

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe @MichelBarnier What that looks like legally (when you are phasing IN restrictions, not phasing them OUT as in a traditional FTA) is less clear...Or indeed if some form of extension can be magicked up at 11th hour in autumn if a deal is in sight. /9

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe @MichelBarnier But when the autumn crunch comes, the above data/report will reminding @BorisJohnson of the decisions he's making, and the additional economic risk it poses to his own 'red wall' voter base. Because it is worth bearing in mind.../10

@SadiqKhan @michaelgove @SMFthinktank @SamuelMarcLowe @MichelBarnier @BorisJohnson ...that the upside to UK GDP of the new 'buccaneering' trade deals you'll be hearing so much about in coming years is - per UK Govt own estimate - "about 0.1%-0.2%" over 15 years.

So it's not a viable off-set..which is to say we must reach a modus vivendi with EU. ENDS