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As each day is setting a new record of #COVID19 daily cases in India, yesterday we recorded 9851 positive cases.

Look at this trajectory of daily cases shooting up in 3rd degree polynomial curve.
As the confirmed cases now touched 2,26,770 cases, please have a look at trajectory of our confirmed cases

#COVID19
WHO website shows the countries showing largest last 7 days confirmed cases and we are now at number 4 position there.
If we consider last 7 days death rates, India is now on the top 5th position in the world
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James Wilson
@jamewils
Many here asked what worries me most about India's #COVID19 trajectory based on tests data

Answer is look at the number of tests needed to confirm a positive case, call it TPCC (Tests Per Confirmed Cases).

TPCC not increases as testing increases instead it decreases!

#Thread
I have discussed about this concept in my latest blog post. The link to my blog post is available in bio.

For the ones, who do not have the patience to read, let me give you the screenshot of the relevant part
Now, let us look at the data as on 1st April

India done 42778 tests and identified 1642 positive cases, ie, a meagre 32 tests per million population.

The TPCC then was 26, means each 26 tests done were identified one positive #COVID19 case.
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James Wilson
@jamewils
Kerala report record 67 #COVID19 cases today with total confirmed cases reached 963.

Active cases shooting up to 416.

Total deaths touching 7.

It is now certain that Kerala will walk from 100 to 1000 in 65 days
Split up of today's 67 cases:

27 cases are from abroad

33 from other States (Maharashtra-15, Tamil Nadu-9, Gujarat-5, Karnataka-2, Delhi-1, Puducherry-1)

7 through contacts
To get a perspective.

After the travel embargo lifted on 7th, Kerala reported a total of 460 #COVID19 cases:

184 from abroad - 40%
215 from other States - 47%
61 through contacts -13%

Death increased from 3 to 7 - is another worrying data
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James Wilson
@jamewils
I do not use any epidemiological model, I test this growth with different forecast models using the past long series.

Thus I make predictions for 3 to 4 weeks with 95% confidence level

But today, when I look at the data, I got a chilling feeling 1/n
When I looked at the past 6 days testing data & positive cases

India done a total of 6.4 lakh tests & detected 35699 cases. Here each 18 test throw out 1 positive case

So if we have capacity to do 2 lakh tests per day, we will find more than 11,000 cases daily!
If we have now the capability to do 5 lakh tests per day we will find more than 27K cases per day!

As we increase our testing to around 1.1 lakh cases, we limit daily cases to 6700!
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