Thread by @AlexGabuev

Chinese customs statistics for May is out. Trade with Russia has finally taken a blow by COVID-19, and dropped by 19.5% last month. Key factor here is collapse of Russian exports by whopping 33.5%. Of course, drop in global oil was the major driver. Some key figures 👇 1/

2/ Data released by General Administration of Customs shows that 🇨🇳 exports decreased 3.3%, while imports plunged 16.7% in May. The resulting trade surplus amounted to $62.93 billion customs.gov.cn/customs/302249…

3/ As @sharonchenhm, @byzhulin & Zhao Yinan point out in this @business piece, the record surplus comes as the price of commodities China buys such as crude oil, natural gas and soy beans declined. Exports were helped by sale of masks & other med supplies bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

4/ Trade with Russia is reflective of this trend. While in the first four months of 2020 🇨🇳🇷🇺 trade was doing comparatively better, in May it has finally taken a big blow by COVID-19 and slump in oil prices, @kommersant explains kommersant.ru/doc/4372698?fr…

5/ May-20 🇷🇺exports to 🇨🇳 is down 33.5% to May-19 (to $3.57 billion), 🇷🇺 imports from 🇨🇳 is slightly up by 0.3% (to $3.8 billion).

6/ Silver lining for Russia is continuous growth of crude exports to China in physical volumes. As @Florence_Tan notes in @Reuters, in May China's oil imports hit all time high. 🇷🇺 oil exports to 🇨🇳 grew 19.2% to May-19 reuters.com/article/us-glo…

7/ We shall watch whether Russian oil producers will be able to maintain these record volumes, as China stops buying oil into reserves. Much will depend on pace of econ recovery. Good news for 🇷🇺 - reopening of PetroChina Dalian refinery later this month reuters.com/article/petroc…

8/ Also, it remains to be seen whether China will continue to grow it's share in Russia's trade (we'll know only after 🇷🇺 posts its figures), a trend at display throughout previous decade and January-April of 2020 so far. END

https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1265902487539798017

Here is a correct link to @business piece by @sharonchenhm, @byzhulin & Zhao Yinan on China's trade data bloomberg.com/news/articles/…