Mini-🧵
Just stating the obvious in @ForeignPolicy on Russia's handling of EU energy crunch: it's a blend of both economic/market factors and politics. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/19/eur…
Just stating the obvious in @ForeignPolicy on Russia's handling of EU energy crunch: it's a blend of both economic/market factors and politics. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/19/eur…
2/ Russia has justified low flows of gas to Europe by @Gazprom's need to refill domestic storage facilities after winter. And this is a true statement. For example, look at @d_khrennikova's and @MaznevaElena's calculations for @business: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Analysts have long predicted that Russia cannot single-handedly balance sudden spikes in European gas demand. Read this September piece by Vitaly Ermakov for @OxfordEnergy: oxfordenergy.org/publications/b…
4/ But is it about something that is both economic and political? Is it about Nord Stream 2? Of course. And 🇷🇺 officials are pretty public about it. Good background here by @olyatanas & @MaznevaElena: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
5/ And finally, is it about something even more political? Is it about not providing @ZelenskyyUa government with extra gas transit revenue beyond money for 40bcm that @Gazprom has to pump this year through Ukraine as part of 2019 contract?
6/ Well, Vladimir Putin was recently on the record on this, although he has provided economic (pumping via NS2 will result in $3.5b savings for @Gazprom) and environmental (less CO2 emissions if NS2 is used instead of 🇺🇦 gas pipelines): en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
7/ And Russia is just semi-subtle in pushing NS2 speedy approval, as @IrinaReznik4, @meyerhenry4, and @world_reporter report: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
8/ Some good background on NS2 regulatory approval hurdles by @katyafimava in @OxfordEnergy (pp. 10-14): oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-conte…
9/ In the short run, the Kremlin has yet again an opportunity to make its case: Russia will remain an indispensable player in EU energy market for at least a decade. Long-term focus for @Gazprom though is diversification of markets for Yamal fields...
10/... and the answer here might be China via Power of Siberia-2 (via Mongolia), that will also fill pockets of companies building it (we all know who they are). Let's for Putin's next trip to Beijing, with a potential slot in Jan 2022 for Olympics opening (COVID permitting)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
