1/ Q: How #risky are my favorite places and activities?
A: A group of Michigan-based #COVID19 experts put together a helpful set of activity "rankings." TL;DR: Skip the buffet. Opt for tennis instead. Please read on for more info (and context!!) around these rankings
2/ Context:
DP is here to help you #StaySMART this summer! A refresher of our SMART principles:
S - Space. Keep your distance.
M - Mask. Keep it on.
A - Air. Opt for outside when possible.
R - Restricted. Keep socializing to a small, stable "bubble."
T - Time. Keep it short.
3/ Other scientists are also helpfully weighing in - for example, this expert group from Michigan ranked activities/places by their #COVID risk level:
Dr. Matthew Sims, Dr. Dennis Cunningham, Dr. Mimi Emig, and Dr. Nasir Husain.
4/ Please note - as with most ranking systems, it's important to hold the exact numbers lightly....given the amount of uncertainty around transmission dynamics we Nerdy Girls tend to pay attention to RELATIVE levels of risk as opposed to the actual numbers.
5/ These are BEST GUESSES based on (considerable!) expertise as opposed to rigorous statistical estimates. And note that there is some disagreement among the experts themselves....which is to be expected given that we're contending with a brand-new pathogen.
6/ @lindsleininger's note: My own personal judgement about school risk is lower, informed by articles such as this one: eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… finding no evidence of school-based transmission. Many of us are doing advisory work for ed institutions and will keep you up-to-date!
7/ Rankings photo credit: Marian Domansky Fisher (Facebook post photo)
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).