Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/6. Alert!!! the USA are experiencing a second wave.
USA by 5 selected States (June 19 to 25): #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for cases/deaths/reprod rates/tests.
Data from coronavirus.jhu.edu
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE and @SDSCdatascience
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

2/6. New York reported 618 new #COVID19 cases on June 18 with a growth rate 0.2%.
With 610->540 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State remains within the safety zone of its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.86
140,290 tests/1M pop; CFR=8%; 1,592 deaths/1M pop

3/6. Texas reported 3,560 new #COVID19 cases on June 18, growth rate 3.1%.
With 2,900->3,700 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State is not controlling its epidemic wave and should not lift any NPIs.
R-eff = 1.38
46,520 tests/1M pop; CFR=2.1%; 73 deaths/1M pop

4/6. Florida reported 3,207 new #COVID19 cases on June 18, growth rate 3.2%.
With 2,800->3,100 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State is experiencing a second (and stronger) wave of its epidemic.
R-eff = 1.37
60,888 tests/1M pop; CFR=3.6%; 143 deaths/1M pop

5/6. California reported 4,288 new #COVID19 cases on June 18, growth rate 2.2%.
With 3,600->3,800 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State is not controlling its epidemic activity and should not lift its NPIs.
R-eff=1.13
65,743 tests/1M pop; CFR=3.2%; 136 deaths/1M pop

6/6. Arizona reported 2,508 new #COVID19 cases on June 18, growth rate 4.8%.
With 1,900->2,550 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State experiences an alarming exponential phase of its epidemic.
R-eff = 1.31
44,674 tests/1M pop; CFR=3%; 176 deaths/1M pop