Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/19. June 12 to June 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for cases/deaths/reproductive rates/tests in 209 countries and territories (18 detailed below)
NEW! risk map
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE and @SDSCdatascience
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2/19. Switzerland reported 23new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a growth rate 0.1%. With 16 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country seems close to virus elimination.
Reprod Rate (R-effective) 1.01
51,049 tests/1M pop

3/19. Italy reported 202 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (daily growth rate 0.1%). With 240->210 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone but still too high to lift NPIs more quickly.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.82
73,492 tests/1M pop

4/19. France reported 545 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate 0.3%). With 450->460 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone but still too high to lift NPIs more quickly.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.9
21,216 tests/1M pop (reliability?)

5/19. Spain reported 314 new #COVID19 cases on June 10 (growth rate of 0.1%). With 260->230 new cases/day forecast, the country remains in its safety zone, but still too high to lift NPIs more quickly.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.8
(No report to ECDC on June 11)
95,508 tests/1M pop

6/19. Sweden reported 890 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate of 1.8%). With 840 new cases/day forecast, the country, like Poland, is plateauing at higher level than other European countries.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.93 (slow down)
32,192 tests/1M pop (too low level)

7/19. Germany reported 555 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate 0.2%). With 380 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone, but still too high to lift NPIs more quickly.
Reproductive Rate (R-eff) 1.02
56,036 tests/1M pop

8/19. The UK reported 1,003 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a growth rate of 0.5%. With 1,300->1,100 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is slowly landing towards its safety zone.
Reproductive Rate (R-eff) 0.84
91,957 tests/1M pop

9/19. Iran reported 2,011 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a growth rate of 1.3%. With 2,300 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is experiencing a 2nd wave of the epidemic (which seems stronger in Saudi Arabia)
Reprod. Rate (R-eff) 0.94
13,978 tests/1M pop

10/19. Russia reported 8,404 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a growth rate of 1.8%. Plateauing at 8,600 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country is plateauing at high level of epidemic activity.
Reproductive Rate (R-eff) 0.99
95,080 tests/1M pop

11/19. South Africa reported 2,430 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a daily growth rate of 4.5%. With 2,200 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains at high level of its epidemic activity.
Reproduct. Rate (R-eff): 1.09
17,353 tests/1M pop

12/19. India reported 9,996 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a daily growth rate of 3.7%. With 10,000-11,000 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is experiencing an exponential phase of its epidemic wave.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 1.07
3,780 tests/1M pop

13/19. The USA reported 20,614 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a daily growth rate of 1%. With 20,900 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is plateauing at high level of its epidemic activity.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.97
69,324 tests/1M pop

14/19. Canada reported 472 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a growth rate of 0.5%. With 480->390 new cases/day in the next days, the country is arrived in its epidemic safety zone.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 0.79
52,732 tests/1M pop

15/19. Mexico reported 4,883 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 with a growth rate of 3.4%. With 4,200->4,600 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences high level of epidemic activity.
Reproductive Rate (R-effective) 1.1
2,866 tests/1M pop

16/19. Brazil reported 32,913 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate 3.7%). With 27,000-28,000 new cases/day in the next days, the country experiences alarming level of epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.07
6,422 tests/1M pop

17/19. Chile reported 5,737 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate 3.6%). 5,000->5,400 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is at high level of its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.05
40,877 tests/1M pop

18/19. Argentina reported 1,239 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate 4.2%). 1,045->1,110 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is at high level of its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 1.19
4,616 tests/1M pop

19/19. Australia reported 9 new #COVID19 cases on June 11 (growth rate 0.1%). With 4-5 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone, in spite of the upcoming winter season.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.71
67,152 tests/1M pop